View from the East by Dr Keith Dawson

THE MAJOR drivers in the East continue to be the weather, with the tail end of El Nino having a residual effect on yields as it transforms into the cyclical, but cooler La Nina effect.

There is no doubt that the warmer recent months are largely down to El Nino weather effects and not a warming climatic effect.

Deeper soil horizons in Ukraine and Russia remain dry and yields will be down in drier areas, coupled with a much lower wheat and oilseed rape area. In contrast, it will be a record sunflower harvest.

In India, Thailand and Vietnam, El Nino droughts have cut rice yields and the same is true for palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, plus crops in sub-Saharan Africa.

The UN has reported that more than 80m people are now in food crisis due to El Nino and conflicts, with Yemen, N Korea and Ethiopia worst affected. That's a marked increase on 2015. No mention of climate change.

Yet fewer people have died of famine in the last 50 years than at any time in history. Farming is also feeding more than four times as many mouths as it did in 1950 and that's a major success story for our noble industry.

In West Ukraine, crops are looking good but raced through the growth stages as temperatures rose and timing of PGR sprays has been problematic. Winter barley, now in ear, looked troubled after earlier freezing, but has now recovered well.

The use of SDHI Aviator has again kept canopies green. Adexar – in its first year on wheat here – has also been successful, but we are worried about resistance.

Our Polish crops suffered from frosts and the oilseed rape looks poor. Meanwhile, the right wing government in Poland has announced new rules on agricultural land sales, allowing only farmers (or priests) to sell land! A return to a medieval mafia some might say.

Weather or climate? Is rising CO2 a hero or villain?

It's a pollutant, according to US EPA, or to be celebrated as Patrick Moore, GreenPeace founder maintains?

Without CO2, life on earth dies. Without CO2, no green plants, no grazing animals, food chain or humans, no wonderful nature documentaries!

The 'burning' question is the true extent to which CO2 influences global temperatures. There has been little significant climatic global warming since 1998 and these warmer recent months are down to El Nino, as NASA scientists now agree.

This is despite models that predicted large temperature increases by now and CO2 increasing over the period. So why trust future predictions?

The model's sensitivity to CO2 is now challenged, they may 'run hot' by up to 300% and that's despite perceptions that global extreme weather damage and climate related deaths are decreasing (UN).

Even warming 2°C, similar to Roman times, would be good news, saving lives and slowing the next overdue, but inevitable Ice Age. Media sadly ignore the positive narrative.

It's undeniable that increased CO2 increases plant growth. Such increases since 1985 have led to increased natural and crop growth, satellites show a massive 15% increase in global greenery.

NASA now concurs and states that this figure is likely an underestimate! Fantastic news for both nature and food security!

Despite climate pessimism, global food prices remain low, record yields were achieved last year, including a new world record wheat yield. Food prices would be lower still if US ceased growing subsidised, inefficient 'green' bioethanol crops.

Extra production from rising 'CO2 fertilisation' equals an extra 15% of land, or 210mha, globally – equal to 35 times the UK's arable areas. That's enough to feed the entire world their daily bread wheat, staggeringly worth over £100bn per annum, plus the environmental benefit of increased growth in natural ecosystems.

All down to the 'villain' of the piece. and positive effects are beyond doubt and, consequently, reduce famine, war and instability. Like Patrick Moore, let's have a balanced view and celebrate this life sustaining 'noble' gas, as vital as oxygen.

The CO2 facts contrast with inaccurate computer models driving a toothless COP(out) 21 Paris Agreement towards unmonitored, easy to defraud 'reparation' funds and costly renewable energy policies, which will directly affect us all, especially farmers.

China and India between them plan 2400 new coal power plants while we close ours, doubling electricity costs, closing our basic manufacturing industry and increasing production costs.

Only 16 nations have fully ratified the Paris Agreement, 13 of these are beneficiary Pacific Islands. It's time they all wakened up to the fact that rising CO2 is not a major pollutant, but an overwhelming nett benefit to humanity.

The excellent Oscar winner 'The big short' tells the true story of cynical, some say fraudulent, herd behaviour by banks in the sub-prime market, causing global economic collapse costing us all. Current climate science and politics, again with flawed models have many hallmarks of the sub prime disaster.

The gamble is again being taken with our money and hits the poorest hardest. Faith in Science will be part of the collateral damage when the 'Emperor's' state of undress finally becomes clear. In a democracy, people are entitled to their own opinions but not to their own facts.

It is interesting to note a further consolidation of the global seeds and CPP industry. Following the Du Pont/Dow merger and the Chinese acquiring Syngenta, Bayer has now made an unsolicited bid for Monsanto. The hunter becomes the hunted!

Over consolidation of the input industry citing increased profits as a reason is unlikely to benefit farmers! A recent authoritative report, based on 900 studies, from the US National Science Academy, with more than 300 Nobel Prize-winning scientists, found no difference between GM and conventional crops in their safety to health and environment.

As evidence for GM swings overwhelmingly in favour, the Luddites switch efforts to banning glyphosate on flimsy evidence, as a back door way of hitting GM. Rather immoral, I feel, to be hitting both GM and the world's most popular herbicide as famine increases.

Weather is annual, but climate is over at least a 30-year span. The recent dreadful boreal wildfires in Canada were cited as evidence of climate change.

It is true record temperatures in the area were recorded in May of 98°F – but it was in May, 1936! Natural wildfires in the '30s burnt up to 10 times the area currently affected, whilst the population of Fort McMurray has increased 40-fold in the intervening years due to oil sand exploitation.

Interesting to also note the Ukrainian pilot, Savchenko, being swapped for two captured Russians. If no Russian involvement in Donbas conflict, then why swap Savchenko for them?

Game, Set and Match for Russian government involvement in the ongoing war. Facts, not opinions, or lies!