Sharp increase in spring barley area

While this has obvious implications for malting barley growers in Scotland, in UK terms of the total cereals and oilseeds area, this increase is more than offset by a sharp decline in the oilseed rape area for a second year in succession, plus slightly lower winter barley and wheat areas.

Isobel Robinson, the AHDB's market analyst, commented: “Spring barley looks to have benefitted from a common trend across the country towards spring cropping, likely influenced by economic factors and efforts to control black-grass and broader agronomic issues.

"The prospect of historically poor market returns at planting was likely a key factor behind the lower oilseed rape area,” she said.

Key findings of the survey are:

* Wheat area down 2% from 2015, at 1.8m ha

* Winter barley area down 2%, at 426,000 ha

* Spring barley area up 6% to 682,000 ha

* Oat area up 4% to 135,000 ha

* Both English and Scottish OSR area down by 9% to 591,000 ha

Overall, the survey showed a small decline in the wheat area planted for harvest 2016. As a result, unless we see particularly high yielding crops this season it is likely that production levels will be down on the year.

However, there are regional differences. In England, the wheat area has declined by 2% to 1.66m ha – the lowest area since 2013. But, in Scotland, there is the highest wheat area since 2011. "Our survey estimates

that the Scottish wheat area is up by 4% from 2015 to 114,000 ha drawing area from barley and OSR," added Ms Robinson.

"Looking at wheat varieties, nabim Group 1 and Group 2 varieties have seen a resurgence this year. Together these account for an estimated 31% of the total GB wheat area, noticeably higher than 2015, when they accounted for

23%.

"This is the highest proportion since 2010 and probably reflects the introduction of newer, higher yielding varieties, including Skyfall and KWS Lili, which also offer greater flexibility in marketing.

"As a result, Group 3s have felt the squeeze again this year, falling to just 5% of the GB area, four percentage points

lower than 2015. However, they could regain some market share in 2017 due to new high yielding varieties on

AHDB’s Recommended List," she argued.

The spring barley increase of 6% takes the area to 682,000ha, the highest since 2013, when a wet autumn and winter caused a spike in spring plantings.

"This growth seems to be part of a general trend towards spring planted crops due in part to interest in cultural control measures for agronomic challenges, such as black-grass and better relative economic returns," said Ms Robinson.

Again, Scotland differs to England. Spring barley plantings up here have fallen 5% to 243,000 ha, similar to levels

in 2010, which could be due to a slowdown in malting barley demand with fewer malting barley contracts available. "Some growers have reportedly switched some areas to oats," she added.

That said, malting barley varieties on the Institute of Brewing and Distilling approved list for harvest 2016 account for 47% of the total GB barley area.

Ms Robinson added: "Following improvements to the methodology this figure is not directly comparable to

2015’s results. If we apply our current methodology to last year’s values, malting barley varieties in 2015 accounted for 52% of GB, 5% higher than 2016.

"For oats, the most noticeable growth was seen in Scotland, where a 12% increase was estimated. At 29,000 ha, this is the second highest Scottish area since 1990, be-

hind 2013.

"There's an unsurprising decrease in English and Scottish OSR area. The English area dropped by 8% to the lowest level since 2009, likely due to the prospects of low market returns at planting and increased risks associated with growing OSR, including from cabbage stem flea beetle.

"The Scottish area is also sharply lower, down 13%. However, the lack of an alternative break crop of scale may

have limited declines in some regions. Charger is the top grown variety," she said.