THIS traditional harvest month always brings a mixed bag of weather and it has been unusually unpredictable.

As a result, some farmers have managed to keep on top of their ripening crops while others have struggled.

Potato irrigation has been an on-off affair and, in the end, not a huge amount of irrigation has been necessary in some areas. But, again, that has very much depended on the weather which has been variable and geographically selective, even from farm to farm.

Winter barley has generally performed below average throughout the UK and the current national average yield estimate is 6.0-6.2 t/ha which is 9-12% below the five-year average of 6.8 t/ha.

Malting winter barley types have typically yielded between 5.0-7.2 t/ha, whilst yields of feed varieties have been slightly higher, ranging between 5.0-9.0 t/ha.

With regards to oilseed rape, most regions have reported that yields are 10-20% below average. Given the high yields that were recorded in 2014 and 2015, this has been disappointing.

The current national yield estimate is between 3.0-3.2 t/ha, compared to the five-year average of 3.6 t/ha. Farm yields have ranged between 1.0-5.0 t/ha, with only a small number of crops achieving yields in excess of 4.5 t/ha.

Early winter oat yields, although limited yield information is available to date, are close to the farm average, with the current national average yield forecast at 5.6-5.8 t/ha. Yields have ranged between 4.9-8.2 t/ha.

Reports from the earliest harvested winter oats suggest that feed varieties are typically yielding between 0.4-0.6 t/ha higher than milling varieties.

The five year average UK wheat yield is currently 7.9 t/ha and to date in the south, yields are hovering around average but look to be somewhere in the region of 10-15% down on last year’s record.

Greater clarity on yield is expected as more yield data comes in as harvest progresses and once larger areas of crops in the northern regions have been harvested.

As of August 16, 95% winter barley, 90% OSR, 20% spring barley, 40% winter oats and 40% of winter wheat had been harvested in the UK, so there is still a long way to go – especially in Scotland, where spring barley is still looking good.

On the markets, the November, 2016, Liffe feed wheat futures were up £1.25 on the week to £130.75 and for November, 2017, up 65p to £135.90 and November 2018 was up 60p to £139.35.

Bread milling wheat ex farm was down £2.20 to £130.70, compared to feed which was up £3.60 to £121.20. Feed barley prices ex farm was also up by £3.30 to £100.70 and oilseed rape delivered Erith was up £9 to £328.50.

The weakness in sterling is keeping UK prices supported as £1 equates to €1.15 and $1.30. Since Brexit, prices have risen by £15 but it is difficult to source feed wheat for export as wheat harvested so far is more suited for milling purposes.

Malting barley premiums in Europe are at their highest in nearly five years and look to stay that way due to the poor harvest.

European prices of many grains have stabilised as the extent of the rain damage to harvests in Germany, and, in particular, France has become apparent. But malting barley values have proved particularly buoyant, rising by 10.2% over the past three months, compared with a marginal fall in feed barley values.

After years of abundant supply, the European and world supply and demand outlook on malting barley for the coming 12-18 months has tightened and, in Europe in particular, the premium is expected to keep trading significantly above the multiple-year average.

The UK domestic market for malting barley is quiet, as maltsters take delivery of pre-harvest contracts. But the continued weakness of sterling is keeping the export market firm with attractive premiums over feed barley.

With yields of winter and spring barley lower this year, it’s unlikely that last season’s bumper export total of 2m tonnes will be repeated.

The wheat harvest in Eastern Europe has seen Bulgaria produce 14% more than last year, which will result in a greater export availability, but Poland is looking to produce 10% less wheat than last year.

In Ukraine, yields are up from 3.94t/ha to 4.28 t/ha which could see exports up to 17m tonnes in 2017/17. Forecasts for Russia’s grain crop continue to re-state a record harvest this year, both for wheat and total grain with wheat alone at a record 69.5m tonnes, up from 62m tonnes in 2015.

Due to shortage of storage in Russia, the majority of exports will be during the first half of the season and competition in export markets will be especially fierce in the first half of 2016/17.

Rising biodiesel usage should help to tighten the vegetable oil market in the coming months. Couple this with reduced OSR yields in Europe and it paints a favourable picture for OSR prices if currency was to remain unchanged.

With a record 19m-tonne canola (OSR) crop in Canada and 4m-tonne crop in Australia, there will be plenty available to import and fill the gap caused by lower yields in Europe. However, with Canadian canola being GM, there are constraints to its usage by end users.

A recent USDA report increased 2016/17 global wheat crop forecast to a record 743m tonnes compared to 735m in 2015/16. End stocks will increase from 242m tonnes to 253m tonnes.

The global maize crop will be up to 1028m tonnes from 956 m tonnes last year and end stocks are forecast up from 209m tonnes to 221m tonnes this year.