The weather in October has continued in the same vein as in September, with above average temperatures allowing beans to be cut and potato lifting to continue under good lifting conditions although we have seen the first ground frost this past week.

Fresh-sown crops are already looking well and rain showers continue to freshen them up which is not the case in other parts of the world.

Frost, rather than excessive rainfall, represents the biggest threat to Western Australia’s wheat harvest where temperatures at ground level could drop as low as -4°C. Despite this succession of frosts, the harvest there will eclipse the all-time high wheat crop of 15.9m tonnes set three years ago in Western Australia.

Australia’s total wheat crop has now been estimated at 27.6m tonnes, even though Eastern Australia is expected to see heavy rain this week that will also drop production and this is the same story in Canada as well.

Winter crop planting in Ukraine and Russia got off to a slower start than usual, hampered by dry soils after below average rainfall.

This all means that global winter wheat sowings for the 2017 harvest will be similar to last year, despite the deterrent of weak prices and the global area is unlikely to show much change year-on-year.

In the EU, which is the world’s top wheat producer, sowings are 'broadly unchanged', although the area sown to rapeseed may rise slightly above the 6.4m ha sown for the 2016 harvest.

Conversely, rapeseed sown in the UK – historically the EU’s third ranked producer – could decline for a fifth successive year following crop damage caused by a ban on neonicotinoid insecticides encouraging the spread of cabbage stem flea beetle.

Gains in EU rapeseed area, such as France, Germany and Poland, will be underpinned by attractive prices relative to wheat.

It is estimated that wheat planting in the US will be down by around 5% to the lowest area sown since 1913 and producers are expected to cut the use of fertilisers and pesticides due to low grain prices.

Even with lower wheat production in the EU this past harvest, the world wheat harvest will set a record by an even bigger margin than previously thought.

The International Grains Council raised its forecast for world wheat production saying that even with less EU wheat, this would be offset by increased production in Australia, Canada, China and Kazakhstan. Global wheat output is put at a record 747m tonnes, up 11m tonnes on last year and the forecast for season end stocks was up 13m tonnes to 231m tonnes.

Global stocks of grains overall, excluding rice were put at 492m tonnes and represents an increase in stock level of 20m tonnes and despite further growth in demand, grains stocks are set to expand again.

An estimated world production of 1.03bn tonnes of maize is forecast despite a reduction of maize in the EU and China where dry weather has affected crop prospects. The EU cut its production by 5.4% to 6.84 t/ha due to hot and dry conditions in parts of France, Italy and Romania.

The USDA expect its maize production to reach a record level of 383m tonnes and see end of season maize stocks at 44m tonnes, which if realised, would be the second highest level since 2005/06 and behind 2014/15.

South Africa will have to import around 1m tonnes of white maize to meet its domestic demand after drought damaged its harvest of 3.25m tonnes, and yellow maize production was estimated at 4.28m tonnes. Prospects for South African 2016/17 maize production is looking good, with production forecast at 13m tonnes, but white maize prices have fallen by 17% in just two weeks due to pressure from the strengthening rand and forecasts of supplies being imported from the US.

The November, 2016, liffe feed wheat futures were down 35p to £127.05 and for November, 2017, last week closed at £132.50, which is around £3 higher than November, 2016, prices a year ago. They are also around £10 higher than November, 2015, prices in the September prior to that harvest.

Sterling dropped to a new post-Brexit low of £1 equating to €1.14, down from €1.20 earlier last month and the lowest since August, 2013. This weakening of sterling has supported UK domestic prices recently, providing an additional boost to UK grain and rapeseed values.

UK feed and milling wheat exports have slowed up and with the French having less quality wheat issues than was originally thought and that is putting more pressure on exports as well.

With the last of the Scottish spring barley harvest just being mopped up, yields look to be around 10% down on normal but quality has held up well for distilling varieties and malting supply and demand is now more tight due to lower yields.

Feed barley exports are also slow with only around 600,000 tonnes sold so far out of a total of 1.4m tonnes to sell.

European oilseed rape prices are holding up well on the back of falling soyabean prices. This is due to poor yields making the European oilseed market tight but downward pressure will come from Australian and Canadian imports, two countries that are expecting record canola yields.