OCTOBER was a dry month across the UK and rainfall totalled 48.9mm, just over 38% of the 30-year average – and the lowest for this month since 1972.

It was also the driest month of the year for the UK and had the unusual result that those with tattie harvesters were actually complaining that things were 'too dry.!'

While the South-east and South of England had the driest conditions, with just a little over 33.3 mm of rainfall in October, Eastern Scotland had 77.7mm of rain making it the wettest area in the UK, but this was still only 58% of the 30 year average.

Due to the dry conditions in the South of England, large areas of winter-sown oilseed rape have failed to germinate, a problem not helped by the prevalence of cabbage stem flea beetle.

So far, November has been a complete contrast with heavy rain, snow, hailstones and much colder wintry weather and, once again, we are seeing winter sown crops under water.

UK wheat futures rallied to new contract highs earlier in the week due to investors holding larger than expected Chicago Board of Trade wheat short positions. What will happen under the new US president, Donald Trump, only time will tell.

But the UK's May, 2017, Liffe feed wheat futures set a new contract high of £144.25, before returning to £141.50 and down £1.20 on the week. November, 2017, was down £2.15 to £138.75.

Our ex-farm prices for bread milling wheat were up 80p to £138.90 and for feed wheat up £2.20 to £133.50. Feed barley was up £3.10 to £114.10, but oilseed rape delivered Erith was down £5.50 on the week to £355.50.

The OSR price was not helped by a UK high court ruling that the triggering of Article 50 to take the UK out of Europe must be approved by Parliament, which sent sterling sharply higher against the dollar, up by nearly 3%, which makes the commodity less competitive.

Wheat used by the UK milling industry, including starch and bioethanol between July and September, totalled 1.8 m tonnes – which is 10% more than for the same period last year and the highest amount of wheat milled during the first quarter of the season on records going back to 1997.

Increased bioethanol demand and low specific weight of wheat, indicating a lower flour extraction, means that more wheat has to be milled to achieve the same level of flour output. The milling industry used 1.54m tonnes, or 88% of home grown wheat and 220,000 tonnes or 12% of imported wheat, which is the lowest amount of imports used in the first quarter of the season since 2011.

EU output of grains is expected to recover next year, but not oilseeds due to a lack of approved pesticides. Cereal production is expected to recover by 4.2% from levels depressed last year by persistent rain in France, which is the EU’s top cereal grower. Growth of 4.2% would see an increase next year of more than 12m tonnes back up to around 294.8m tonnes.

Australia is still having weather issues with higher than average rainfall and frost damage has resulted in the latest estimates in Western Australia, which accounts for 36% of Australia’s total wheat harvest. This region is having its lowest output since 2013/13 and there are quality issues as well.

The 2016 Black Sea region of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan, has produced 114.3 m tonnes this past year, compared to 101.7m tonnes in 2015. This bloc is forecasting record exports of 54.1m tonnes, up from 48.3m tonnes in 2015.

Ongoing dry conditions across the US plains is also giving cause for concern, but the 2017 winter wheat crop is still rated 58% 'good to excellent' at this time.

The US maize area for 2017 is forecast to fall to a six-year low of 88m acres compared to 94.5m acres last year, but the 2016 tonnage is forecast at 387m tonnes compared to 345m tonnes in 2015.

The AHDB's 'Early Bird' survey has indicated a slight reduction in the UK wheat area of 1% to 1.8m ha and 4% lower than the previous five- year average. The area planted to winter barley is expected to fall by 9% to 397,000 ha. Spring barley is expected to hit the second highest level on records going back to 1997 at 799,000 ha behind 2013, which was driven by poor conditions the previous autumn.

The OSR area is expected to fall in 2017 for the fifth consecutive year at 557,000 ha and, if realised, would be the lowest planted area in the UK since 2004 and is forecast 4% lower than this year. The east of the country is expected to see a dramatic decrease in area planted of 28% due to cabbage stem flea beetle damage and lack of moisture.

In other areas, such as the Midlands, South of England and Scotland, the nett area sown to oilseed rape is expected to increase. This is likely to be driven by the rise in oilseed rape prices, making it an attractive break crop.

Feed barley prices in the UK are currently well supported and is likely to remain the case as the winter feeding season approaches. There are still premiums for spring malting barley and maltsters are still looking for tonnage for later in the season.

The area of malting barley grown in Scotland in 2016 stood at an almost 20-year low as farmers looked for more profitable crops to grow. The total grain area in Scotland fell by 15,000 ha in 2016, which followed a 19,000 ha reduction the previous year.