After strong prices in the 2016/17 season, it is likely we will see an increase the area dedicated to potato production in the UK.

AHDB Potatoes' analyst, Amber Cottingham, told The SF: “There are a range of factors that affect planting decisions when growing a potato crop including available land and machinery and the likelihood of a profitable season. However, the potato market is notoriously volatile which can make this last point difficult.

"Whether current prices are an accurate guide of prices the following year or not, there are relationships between market prices one year and planted areas the next.”

The GB planted area in 2016 was 116,200 ha, an increase of 4% on the previous year – and was a surge largely driven by price. This increase was reflected in Scotland which saw the potato area grow by nearly 3000 ha.

Looking specifically at seed, 2016 was also a buoyant year – the land dedicated to this crop in Scotland increased by 13% (12% in total GB) with export favourite, Hermes, the most popular variety.

While the area increased, 2016 was not a strong year for production. Scottish yields were on average 46.4t/ha which compared favourably to a GB average of 44.9t/ha. However, that figure was still down on the last couple of years (in 2015 the average was 47.8t/ha and in 2014 46.9t/ha).

This meant prices started high this season and after a brief seasonal decline, started to rise again. The typical expectation would be that high prices last season could encourage growers to increase their area planted again for the 2017/18 season.

“So far this season, the average price is approximately £32/t above the same period last year, while the free-buy average is nearly £60/t higher,” said Amber. “When considering that 70% of the time a higher average price has meant an increase in area the following year, it is likely that this year will also see an increase in planted area.

“It is worth mentioning that if area does increase this year and yields return to average, there could be a higher level of production than over the last two tight seasons.

"Should yields perform above average, production could be higher again and we could see lower prices for potatoes across GB continuing the volatility cycle of high and low price years,” she concluded.