Argentina’s soya bean production is expected to increase by almost 150% in the 2023-24 marketing year.

According to a report from the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), well-timed rains during planting season are behind this boost.

The FAS projects a harvest of 50.5 million tonnes this season, a significant rise from the 20.5 million recorded in the drought-affected year of 2022-23. Last year, reduced exports and low crush operation rates led the agency to lower its soya bean crush estimate to 26mt.

However, a substantial increase is predicted this year, with the crush total expected to reach 40mt. If realised, this soya bean harvest would be the highest since 2018-19, when Argentina harvested 55.8mt of the crop.

Regarding the 2023-24 crop, the FAS reports that the El Niño weather pattern has brought relief from the country’s severe drought, the worst in over 60 years.

“Above-average rainfall occurred in major growing areas from early November through December,” noted the FAS.

Boosted by improved weather conditions and potential economic policy changes encouraging exports, the agency increases its soya bean planted area projection by 800,000 hectares to a total of 17.2m.

Looking ahead, the FAS anticipates exports for 2023-24 at six million tonnes, a threefold increase from the previous year. Nationwide, as of December 31, 79% of the corn crop had been planted, nearly 9% ahead of the previous year’s pace, with the planted crop receiving favourable ratings of optimal or adequate conditions.

“In discussions with local industry contacts, optimism prevails, with expectations for more normal precipitation throughout the growing season,” states the FAS.

“Some industry analysts expect an even larger harvest of as much as 53 million tonnes this year.”