We may see some action on the fields going into March.

Water that has been lying in fields for weeks is at last starting to drain away and with a bit of wind to dry the land we may see some action on the fields now that we are into March.

Wheat

The Liffe feed wheat futures continue their downwards track and this year alone have lost over 16% of their value.

Currently, May 2024 futures old crop stands at £164.50/t, which is down £5 from two weeks ago, but recently hit a contract low at £160/t.

November 2024 new crop stands at £183/t which again is £5 down from two weeks ago and hit a new contract low recently of £178/t, which means there is still a large price carry of over £18/t from May to November.

Wheat prices continue to be under pressure with many countries having a large tonnage of unsold wheat, coupled with a lack of fresh demand including the US, Ukraine, EU, Australia, and Russia whose level of wheat stocks are at a record high.

As of January 1, Russian stocks were quoted at 36.5mt and they look to be increasing their grain export quota up until June 30, to 28mt which is up 4mt on previous figures.

In February, Russia exported 33.1mt of wheat and looks likely to reach 50mt for the 2023-24 marketing year.

Another fact not helping grain prices is the latest figures from the International Grains Council which raised the world maize production estimate by 4mt to a total of 1.234bn tonnes which is 71mt up on last year while world wheat production was left unchanged at 788mt.

The European markets were helped by export figures up to February 13, showing exports at 19.896mt which is just 900,000t behind last year but conversely EU wheat imports reached 5.831mt of which two-thirds of that total came from Ukraine.

Looking forward to this year, Russia’s wheat production is forecast to rise to 93mt and it expects to export 52.9mt this season and 48.1mt next season.

Ukrainian grain exports, between February 1 and 15, reached 3.1mt compared to 2.2mt for the same period last year as their Black Sea ports once again become more operational.

UK old crop feed wheat prices remain too high to be export competitive and at £150/t, delivered to port farmers who have available storage and finance and are tempted by the £18 carry to the new season, by the end of December only 155,900t had been shipped – the lowest tonnage since 2020-21.

The UK delivered feed wheat in the south of England was quoted last week at £160, with milling wheat commanding a premium of £80 at £240/t for bread wheat.

This premium has increased from £60 in December and is well above the five-year average of £27.10/t for the month of January.

Due to the tight domestic milling wheat outlook and resulting rising premiums, it is expected that a greater proportion of imported wheat will be used this season compared to last season.

Figures show that for this season, from July to December, wheat imports have totalled 1.037mt which is up 45.1% on the year and up 3.2% on the five-year average.

With growing concerns over next year’s crop, imports are expected to continue, especially towards the end of the season.

The 2024 UK wheat crop potential has not improved, with a forecast for 2024 of 12.8m tonnes.

With the recent wet weather not allowing any sowing to take place as mentioned earlier, it is only now, but not by any means in all regions, that there are signs of land starting to dry out but that could just be until the next spell of wet weather.

In France, as of February 12, 68% of their soft wheat crop and 71% of their winter barley crop is in good to excellent condition – the lowest percentage since 2020 – and compares to 2023 when the figures were 93% and 92% respectively.

Their spring barley planting is progressing slowly, with just 26% completed.

Barley

Barley prices have followed wheat downwards recently with ex-farm feed barley now under £150/t which has seen less tonnage sold and demand for feed has fallen as prices ease.

This has resulted in barley’s discount to wheat reducing and with a large tonnage still looking to be exported, this could see prices drop even further.

UK barley exports totalled 405,600t from July to December which is 32% less than for the same period last year although forecasts are for 700,000t to be moved by the end of the season.

Spring barley planting is still being held up due to ongoing wet weather and if spring crops are planted later in March, they run the risk of drought as they try to make up for lost time.

France had only planted 20% of their spring barley by February12, compared to 54% at the same time last year.

Oats

From July to December, the UK exported 74,200t of oats which is well ahead of the five-year average of 46,800t but below the 89,500t exported last year. The 2023 harvest produced 995,00t which is 15% below the five-year average of 1.1mt.

Most of the exports went to the EU, including Belgium, with Spain and Germany being the main destinations. These exports were helped by a 20% drop in production in the EU and a combination of lower planted area and poor yields.

Maize

UK maize imports reached 2.31mt by the end of December and to reach the full season forecast for 2023-24, maize imports need to average around 180,000t per month from January to June, and this compares to 205,100t per month so far this season.

Oilseed Rape

Rapeseed values have continued to drop over the past few weeks and last week were down £5/t for delivery to Erith at £351.50/t.

The rapeseed production for the EU in 2024 is estimated to be down by 7% year on year to 18.4mt due to reduced planted area mainly in Eastern Europe.

This will result in strong imports from Australia and Ukraine.

A record crop of soybeans is due to come on the market and they account for 74% of global major oilseeds.

Currently Brazil’s soybean crop is now 30% harvested and another factor regarding oilseed supply is the South Pacific could experience a La Nina weather event later this year – which could boost global rapeseed supplies going into 2025 but could also put pressure on oilseed prices.

Fertiliser

Ammonium nitrate prices eased recently to £350/t which compares to £682/t at this time last year.

If we look at the five-year average for 2017-21, the price was £241/t. Even though gas prices remain low both in the UK and EU, ammonium nitrate supplies remain tight for the spring due to manufacturing plants cutting back on production across Europe, although some are now beginning to restart production.

European natural gas prices have eased due to the second-warmest winter in the last 10 years which has led to lower demand for gas.

This has seen European supplies build up and the market remains well stocked at 73% full in the EU.

With natural gas accounting for approximately 60% of nitrogen fertiliser production costs, fertiliser prices have eased accordingly.

Straw

Due to the wet harvest and poor autumn, a lot of straw that would normally have been baled was chopped in the field to allow the next crop to be sown.

In the event, a lot of proposed winter crops never got sown due to the weather and this will mean more spring crops which are more susceptible to the weather – and there could be less straw available for sale ex-farm to livestock producers.

The straw market is reflecting the current straw situation which has seen barley straw ex-farm selling for £80/t and wheat straw at £70/t – and this is before any haulage costs are incurred.

Depending on when cattle start to be turned out across the UK the market could see a change in supply and demand later on in spring.

As usual so much hinges on the weather.