AHDB’s recent arable survey shows a dramatic drop in winter crop area.

The wet autumn meant lower levels of planting, and continued severe weather resulted in winter losses.

The next few weeks will be crucial and the wheat reduction could be greater, depending on the planting of spring wheat.

Helen Plant, AHDB senior analyst said, “Farmers still have the chance to plant crops such as spring barley and oats – but if heavy rain continues, crops will be planted at a point where they may become economically unviable.

“We are heading to the point where spring-sown winter wheat varieties will not be able to develop sufficiently to provide a viable crop.

“There is a clear intention to plant more spring wheat, but the persistence of wet weather means there is uncertainty about whether this can be done.

“While the area of spring wheat is small in comparison to the total wheat area, any areas that can’t be planted would further reduce the total wheat area.

“All parts of the UK have suffered. The East Midlands and Yorkshire and the Humber are reported as the worst affected, with notable flooding in these areas.

Less severe impacts are reported for Scotland and Southern England, where periods of less extreme rainfall seem to have allowed more planting to take place.”

The UK will need to import more wheat in the coming year starting this summer and potentially into 2025/26. The condition of crops is now a huge focus, with unfavourable weather putting the yield at risk of being significantly reduced.

Further depending on what happens in this year’s harvest, the availability of straw could be reduced, spreading the impact throughout the agricultural sector.

UK cropping area for 2024

Wheat – down 15%

Oilseed rape – down 28%

Winter barley – down 22%

Spring barley – up 29%