ONE WET day last week with 12mm or half an inch of rain in the Borders did a lot of good for recently sown winter crops and farm operations are progressing well, but beans are still taking a long time to ripen.

Last weekend's USDA report forecast global wheat production up by another 4m tonnes.

Forecasts are for global cereal tonnage to be 2534m tonnes, compared to 2558m tonnes last year. Usage is put at 2530m tonnes which is up 31m tonnes up on 2014 and will leave season end stocks down 4m tonnes at 638m tonnes.

Wheat prices are being held up by dry weather around the world, especially in Ukraine and Russia.

In Ukraine, the winter cereal area could fall by 30%, which represents 2.5m ha, due to drought. Dry weather has become an issue in parts of the US plains, with Western Kansas rainfall over the past month at only 50% of normal, leading to concerns for the germination of winter wheat.

Winter wheat planting is also being held up in Texas and Oklahoma where crops are stressed with lack of soil moisture.

The USDA has forecast Australian wheat production up 10% on year to 26m tonnes and canola down 3.3% to 3.3m tonnes despite the threat of El Nino.

Partly as a result of the global poor weather outlook, Liffe feed wheat futures for November, 2015, were up last week by £1.45 to £117 and for November, 2016 up by £2 to £132.

Merchants are currently offering £120 for feed wheat ex farm for May, 2016, uplift and with higher yields this is at least above the cost of production.

However, cereal prices have dropped by more than 30% in the past two years and if yields fall back to normal levels again next year, then prices will have to rise dramatically.

UK wheat production has been estimated by Defra at 16.1m tonnes compared to 16.61m tonnes last year and this reflects strong yields as there was a large drop in the UK wheat area. An NFU survey, however, estimated our wheat production to be 16.68mi tonnes and, if confirmed, that would be the fourth largest wheat crop on records dating back to 1892.

It is the first time the UK has produced more than 16m tonnes of wheat in two consecutive years and the NFU survey results show a 6% wheat yield rise year-on-year from 8.6 to 9.1 t/ha.

EU wheat exports to date total 5.8m tonnes, compared to 7.5m tonnes last year at this time - barley exports are up from 2.5 to 3.7m tonnes and maize imports are down from 2.4 to 1.8m tonnes.

UK feed barley exports have been good and there is continued demand until the end of 2015, which is good as high barley yields means we have an exportable surplus of around 2m tonnes.

Domestic maltsters remain well covered as they continue to take delivery of pre-harvest contracts and there are steady exports of malting barley but not a lot of new demand at present.

Export demand has helped lift feed barley prices from their harvest lows and the differential between the barley and wheat prices has narrowed and this has resulted in feed compounders using less barley in rations.

Defra estimates UK barley production this harvest at 7.3m tonnes, which is 5% up from last year's 6.9m tonnes and, if realised, could be the largest UK barley crop since the 7.8m tonnes produced in 1997.

Estimated winter barley yields of 7.7 t/ha were up on last year's 7.2 t/ha and well above the 10 year average of 6.5 t/ha.

Spring barley yields were put at 5.9 t/ha a figure similar to last year's but above the 10 year average of 5.4t/ha.

The Ukraine has provisionally agreed 2015/16 season export limits for wheat at 16.5m tonnes, barley at 2.9m and maize at 16m tonnes and would see maize exports down by 21%. This reduction is in response to a poor growing season and reduced availability which will be the lowest level of maize since 2012/13 and could push demand onto other commodities, such as wheat.

UK oilseed rape yields were predicted to be 3.8t/ha this harvest, which compares with 3.6t/ha last year and a 10-year average of 3.4t.

In parts of Brazil, ongoing dry weather means it is still too dry to drill soyabeans and this will give cause for concern if delays continue after mid-October or beyond as yields will suffer as a result.

Again, dry weather in the Ukraine will see only 500,000 ha of winter oilseeds planted instead of their intended 800,000 ha.

In Canada, the canola crop is expected to be better than expected following decent summer weather which has allowed the crop to recover from the early spring drought. The US soybean harvest is progressing well at approximately 46% complete, compared to a five-year average of 35% at this time.

The bean harvest is still to get properly underway here and beans so far that have been cut are of human consumption quality and premiums now range from £10 to £18 over feed, depending on locality and quality. Bean exports have started and several vessels are due to load from UK ports this month.