IN MY part of the Borders, October had only 32mm, or 1.5 inches of rain, to give a total for the year to date of 440mm (17 inches) of rain, compared to 93mm in October last year and a total to date in 2014 of 538mm.

As a result, most winter cultivations are up to date and crops are coming through the ground well, which is a good start for a high yielding harvest again next year. But, as we all know, there's a long way to go and a lot can happen to influence yields and prices before next harvest.

The Liffe November, 2015, feed wheat futures were up £1.45 last week to £114.95, but earlier this week fell back £1.40 due to better harvesting conditions in the US, following last week's USDA report which highlighted that 36% of Oklahoma was in drought.

Further fears have arisen for the Australian wheat crop, as heavy rain is forecast over the next week. The rain could potentially damage unharvested crops after dry weather in September reduced yields by up to 2m tonnes in total. World wheat forecasts for 2015/16 have, therefore, been reduced to 726m tonnes by the International Grains Council.

Currency is also affecting prices as sterling continues to get stronger once more against the euro. Our currency has gone from the low levels of 1.33 to over 1.39 against the euro in less than two weeks, which has an adverse affect on UK commodity values.

The US Federal reserve has also hinted at a possible interest rate rise in December, which saw investors move money from the euro to the dollar which in turn strengthened as well. The US dollar has been continuing to strengthen against the euro and is at its highest rate since early August and 3.3% higher than two weeks ago.

The increase comes as cuts were made to Chinese interest rates in a bid to boost economic growth. There is still the issue of quantitative easing by the Eurozone which is also causing the euro to weaken as well.

The EU commission has increased yields for barley, wheat and maize due to weather improvements towards the end of the EU harvesting period. The 2015 EU soft wheat yield was revised up to 5.86t/ha from 5.81t/ha in September. The total barley yield was increased to 4.65t/ha, 4% higher than the current five-year average.

And, the increased grain maize yield estimate now stands at 6.47t/ha. However, despite the upward revision, the estimate remains 8% below the five year average of 7.04t/ha.

With plentiful supplies and a weaker euro, the competitiveness of EU barley prices will be key to shifting the surplus especially when trying to compete with cheaper Black Sea prices.

There has been a strong export campaign so far with 4.1m tonnes of EU barley licences issued up to October 20, compared to 2.7m tonnes at the same time last year. The weaker euro against the dollar has allowed EU wheat to become more competitive and resulted in Egypt's state grain buyer, GASC - the world's largest wheat importer - buying 240,000 tonnes of wheat from Europe instead of from Russia, where it previously bought 1.41m tonnes. That is 60% of all purchases in 2015/16.

UK import levels for both wheat and barley are forecast down 27% and 21%, respectively. Wheat imports are forecast at 1.2m tonnes, down from 1.6m tonnes in 2014/15, as domestic demand is expected to come from UK production this season.

Furthermore, with wheat opening stocks forecast at 56% higher year-on-year, the surplus available for either export or free stock is also expected to rise by 26%.

Barley imports are forecast at 100,000 tonnes, down 26,000 compared with 2014/15. With UK production forecast at 7.3m tonnes, potentially the largest crop since 1997, total available barley supplies are expected to increase by 5% year-on-year, potentially reducing the need for imports.

The surplus available for export or free stock is forecast at 2.7m tonnes, up 21% year-on-year. This means a strong export campaign will be required to prevent a further build-up of barley stocks in 2015/16

Looking ahead to 2016, the report revealed that poor weather conditions in some eastern and northern regions of the EU may affect winter planting and could potentially point to lower yields in the affected regions which in turn could see the spring barley area increase once more and would keep prices low once again.

The weak euro has seen UK oilseed rape prices drop and OSR delivered Erith was down £2 to £268.50. The EU 28 winter rapeseed area for harvest 2016 is expected to be around 6.5m ha but the Ukraine is looking to have a 30% drop in OSR area due to changing rotations and higher risks for growing the crop.

The USDA is currently expecting demand for maize from ethanol to grow by 0.8% this season to 133m tonnes. If the current year-on-year trend in ethanol production remains, this would equate to around 6m tonnes of demand for maize above the current USDA estimate.

So far this season, daily ethanol production has, on average been 5.4% higher than a year ago. A key driver of this has been higher US gasoline demand which is up 3.6% year-on year. This is likely to be driven by low crude oil prices, a strong US dollar and the strengthening US economy.