THIS PAST week has seen harvest has progressed in many areas of the east and north, but those in the west and in some localised areas have suffered some devastating outbursts of rain.

Even in areas which have been feeling the heat, it has been muggy and crops have been slow to dry off, delaying start-ups in the morning.

Throughout the UK, winter wheat is estimated at 90% harvested, with yield put at 7.8-8.0 tonnes/ha, compared to 8.8 tonnes in 2015 and the five-year average of 7.9 t/ha. Winter barley is estimated to have averaged 6.0-6.2 tonnes/ha which last year averaged 7.5 tonnes/ha and is below the five-year average of 6.8 t/ha.

There is still a lot of spring barley still to cut in Scotland, but yield estimates to date put spring barley at 5.7-5.9 tonne/ha compared to 6 tonnes last year and the five-year average of 5.6 t/ha.

Oilseed rape is estimated at 3.0-3.2 tonnes/ha against a five-year average and last year’s yield of 3.6 t/ha – though some yield of oilseed rape has been lost to high winds in some areas.

UK Liffe feed wheat futures were down £1.40 on the week to £121.35 for November, 2016 and for November, 2017, were up 20p to £129.90 and for November, 2018, up 80p to £136.55. Prices have barely changed through the week as prices stabilised, but the pound climbed to a six-week high against the euro early last week which will make it difficult to attract fresh export business.

UK ex-farm bread milling wheat was down £1 to £127.70, feed wheat was up 20p to £117.30, feed barley was down 70p to £101.60 and oilseed rape delivered Erith was up £2.50 to £326.

UK wheat quality remains good, with most milling varieties meeting specification, though yields are variable.

Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, recently reinstated a zero-tolerance of ergot and last week rejected a 63,000 tonne cargo from Romania. This has made traders nervous about sending tonnage there as large costs could be incurred for further ergot rejections.

Russia has confirmed it is freezing its wheat export tax at zero until June, 2018 and there are forecasts of 2016/17 Russian wheat exports of 30m tonnes, compared to 25.5m last year. It is targetting a 2020 cereal crop of 130m tonnes, which last year was 118m tonnes.

Australia is forecasting a wheat crop of 29m tonnes, which is up from 25.5m tonnes in 2015 and well ahead of the five-year average of 25.1m tonnes. It also has a record barley crop ahead of the existing record of 10.4m tonnes.

It uses only a minority of its crop domestically, typically exporting some 5-6m tonnes per year, with the record of 6.4m tonnes set in 2003-04 after the previous record harvest.

Ukraine has been exporting barley as quickly as possible too, with more than half its anticipated export tonnage already shipped in the first two months of the 2016-17 season.

Its barley is the cheapest in the world and a record 40.7m tonnes is forecast to be exported in 2016-17, which would be up from 38.5m tonnes last season.

India is expecting to harvest a wheat crop of 83m tonnes – down from 86.5m tonnes last year – and is looking to import 3-4m tonnes to replenish stocks. This would be their biggest wheat importation since the 7m tonnes it imported in 2007-08.

EU wheat exports to date total 5.1m tonnes, compared to 3.7m tonnes last year at this time. Barley exports of 1m tonnes is down from 2.7m tonnes and maize imports are the same as last year at this time at 1.5m tonnes.

In July, the UK exported 201,000 tonnes of wheat, which is the highest level for that month since 2010/11 and July’s exports were more than double the amount shipped in July, 2015 and the previous ten-year average of 89,000 tonnes.

This extra tonnage exported in July was mostly from last year’s stocks as the UK wheat harvest did not get underway until the beginning of August, so it will not help the new wheat harvest stock situation unless exports continue at the current level.

UK wheat stocks at the end of 2015/16, excluding on farm stocks in Scotland and Northern Ireland, were at the highest level since at least 2007 at 2.7m tonnes and had increased by 34% year-on-year. Barley stocks were 2.2% lower at the end of 2015/16 at 77,000 tonnes, due to an estimated 4% year-on-year increase in demand for barley as animal feed. Again, a strong export campaign saw 1.99m tonnes of barley leave the UK.

The spring barley harvest in Scotland is now around 60% complete, with quality generally good with low nitrogen, low screenings and low skinned grains. Malting barley prices have fallen as the Scandinavian spring barley harvest is now finished and more good quality barley is being cut at home as well.

Global oilseed prices were supported last week as strong demand pulled prices up and UK delivered oilseed prices were supported by soyabean markets as well as the weakness of sterling. A potential threat to prices was the USDA lowering its forecast for soyabean imports to China by 1m tonnes to 86m tonnes.

Canada is expecting a record canola (OSR) harvest which could put pressure on European oilseed rape futures and it now appears that it has old crop stocks totalling 2m tonnes compared to trade expectations of 1.2m tonnes. That will not help prices.

An interesting figure appeared on my desk this week which was that 52.1m ha of Australian agricultural land – an area bigger than that of Germany and Greece, combined, is in foreign ownership and is equivalent to 13.6 % of Australia’s total farmland.

A more interesting figure was that UK owners are the biggest foreign landowners there, holding 27.5m ha, more than half the total for overseas investors and 7.2% of Australia’s overall agricultural area.