JANUARY is never the best month to market prime sheep, but with fewer numbers coming forward, the pendulum swung in the other direction to bolster prices at all the early markets in Scotland, this week.

On Monday, the Scottish average levelled at 169.6p per live kg, which represented a rise of 5.6p per kg on the week, for 30% fewer, with figures south of the Border, of 167.2p for 18,098 head also up on the same period by 2.4p but for 12.2% less.

It was a similar situation on Tuesday too, when the Scottish average rose a massive 13.7p to level at 172.6p per kg but for just 2131 old season lambs sold, which was a fall of 38%. Figures in England and Wales saw a 33% drop in numbers with 13,156 cashed at 169.4p, up 6.3p on the previous seven days.

“It’s all down to the numbers coming out this week,” Alastair Logan, sheep auctioneer at Caledonian Marts, Stirling, told The Scottish Farmer, following a cracking sale of prime hoggs which saw overall averages jump 12.3p on the week, with every section witnessing significant rises.

Lightweight lambs there (32-39kg) improved the most by 27.3p to level at 176.9p, but even the heavier weights (45.6-52kg and 52kg+) sections increased by 9.9p and 18.3p to average 165.8p and 153.1p respectively.

“We had a terrific sale – some of the lighter Beltex-type lambs worked out at 410p per kg deadweight. Our numbers were up 200 on the same sale last year but most other centres have been well down on the week,” he said highlighting the reasons for the rise in values.

“I don’t think the sheep are out there that the economists say there are. In saying that, the people who bought store lambs at £60-£65 per head will be holding on to them until the market improves further and can make money from them.”

However, while many will indeed be stalling selling, with the continued mild weather and much improved grass growing conditions, compared to last winter, Brian Ross, sheep auctioneer at Lawrie and Symington, warned finishers their sheep could be heavier than expected.

“The sheep trade would work away fine if producers supplied regular numbers of lambs hitting the spec’. Problems arise when too many overweight, overfat lambs appear on the market,” said Mr Ross.

It was a point echoed by Stuart Ashworth, head of economics at Quality Meat Scotland, who pointed out that with a 2% larger lamb crop in 2016 compared to 2015, the likelihood is, a higher volume of hoggs are still to be marketed.

And, as the lamb crop year advances towards April, he said there is typically an increase in the proportion of hoggs heavier than 45kg liveweight.

“In January heavy hoggs can make up more than 25% of the auction offer, rising to more than 30% of the offer as we reach April,” said Mr Ashworth.

“This year, the proportion of heavy hoggs is currently higher than for several years. These heavy lambs are heavily discounted on a pence per kg basis, but they often return the same income, if not margin, per head as hoggs in the more desirable retail specification of 40-45kg liveweight.”

The volume of heavy lambs and hoggs can, however, act as a break on the SQQ price, he warned.

“In 2015 and 2016, the proportion of heavy hoggs at auction was higher than the five-year average and began to exceed 30% in March and April 2015 and 2016 when the SQQ price lost momentum. Presenting hoggs to the market which meet buyer specifications will help to maximise the return farmers can achieve,” said Mr Ashworth.

Admittedly, the lamb trade has struggled for most of January, but the same holds true across Europe where both heavy and light prime sheep prices have come under pressure.

Latest figures show heavy lambs have dipped 10% since Christmas in France, 12% in Spain and 2% in Ireland. When quoted in Euros the GB price has fallen 4% since Christmas. Light lamb prices throughout Europe have also slipped with the main lamb producing countries – Spain, Italy and Greece – showing falls of up to 13% since Christmas.

Compared to this time last year, the Euro price in France for a heavy lamb (or UK-type lamb) is 8% lower with the Spanish price 2% lower, the Irish price 13% lower and GB 15% lower, said Mr Ashworth.

“Light lamb prices are from 4% to 10% lower across the main lamb-producing countries. “The weakness of sterling compared to this time last year means that in sterling terms the current hogg price, of some 5% lower than a year ago, is sheltering producers from some of the price pressure found in other parts of Europe,” he said.

Looking further ahead Mr Ashworth said the continued decline in the French breeding flock suggests France will be slightly less well supplied with domestic product, but, with the decline in sheepmeat consumption, there is little room for imports from the UK or anywhere else.