PRODUCERS of prime cattle have welcomed the return of the seasonal rise in the prime cattle trade, valued at, on average, 7p to 8p per dwt kg.

The past few years have offered a minimal rise of around 2p to 3p per dwt kg during the month of November, but the run up to Christmas 2017 has restored the trend, according to Quality Meat Scotland's head of economic services, Stuart Ashworth.

“The lift in this year’s price for cattle grading R4L is slightly lower, at 6p per dwt kg, so perhaps not surprisingly the higher lift in the average price than the specific R4L grade suggests a higher proportion of premium grades in the overall kill,” said Mr Ashworth.

“We have to go back to 2014 to find the last time that the end of November price was higher than the end of September price.

“Equally, over the past four years the end of November price has been the seasonal high point as beef required for 28 and 21 days maturity will have been laid down for the Christmas trade,” added Mr Ashworth.

This bump in trade has brought more cattle forward for slaughter as abattoirs reported some 7% more bullocks and 19% more heifers were processed in the final week of November compared to the first week of the same month.

It should be noted, however, the total number slaughtered for the month of November was 0.5% lower than the same period in 2016, which, when combined with smaller carcase sizes, has meant a 1% to 2% reduction in the volume of beef produced in late November.

“If the major retailers are planning for similar volumes of beef to last year being purchased over the Christmas period then there is some potential mismatch between supplies and demand and some upward pressure on price,” continued Mr Ashworth.

“However, over the past few Christmases Kantar Worldpanel market research analysis shows there to have been some slow year-on-year increase in retail sales of beef roasting joints. Retailers will have taken this into account as they order beef from processors and that may also have influenced demand.”

According to the same retail analysis, there has been a growth in the demand for lamb roasting joints during the Christmas period in the last few years, although Christmas 2016 did struggle a little to prolong the trend.

“In many parts of Europe there is firm consumer demand for lamb over the Christmas festival period as well. This consumer behaviour will have contributed to increases in farm gate prime lamb prices. In three of the last four years there has been a sizeable seasonal lift in prime lamb prices through November to the second week of December before losing a little ground into the new year,” said Mr Ashworth.

The short-term volume of lambs slaughtered also climbs in the run up to the Christmas period. This year has been no different with a bigger supply of prime lambs than for a number of years still benefitting from a lift in price. This has taken current prices above those of a year ago.

Mr Ashworth expects the Scottish prime cattle supply to remain tight in comparison with recent years, going by the number of calf registrations from two years ago to draw from in early 2018. However, some of these registered calves may have already been sold at a younger age to meet calls for smaller carcase sizes, and the English and Welsh market is likely to be better supplied than during 2016 due to an increase in calf registrations in 2015.

The availability of prime sheep in early 2018 is also looking to be higher than last year, continued Mr Ashworth. June census data for Scotland and the UK reported a larger lamb crop and provisional slaughter data from June to October shows a significant decline in lamb slaughtering. While indications are that the November kill has been larger than last year, there is likely to be an increase in hogg carryover.