While store cattle prices have rallied in recent weeks, prime values remain very much finely balanced but thankfully without the usual slip ups seen at the start of a new year when consumers come to terms with credit card bills.

As a result, there has been little change in GB and Scottish values over the past month with the exception of a few pence back and forth.

Latest figures for the week ending February 4, show an all GB steer average of 350.5p per deadweight kg, which is down just 0.5p on the week, with values in Scotland some 10p higher at 360.7p, representing a fall of almost 2p due to a 2.3% increase in the numbers killed.

Heifer averages remained much the same too, albeit for increased numbers with the GB average at 354.1p, showing a slight drop, while the Scottish figure slipped 1.1p to 363.6p.

Nevertheless, the gap between cattle hitting the preferred R4L spec’ in Scotland and south of the Border in England and Wales, is narrowing with Scottish steers at 366.0p compared to 363.3p in the south. Heifers of the same grade in Scotland averaged 366.6p, against 359.9p, in England and Wales.

The good news is prime cattle prices remain just over 20p per kg ahead of this time last year.

More concerning is the emerging situation from across the Irish Sea, with Teagasc, the agri-food board in the Republic of Ireland, forecasting Irish throughputs to be up 100,000-110,000 cattle on 2016, due to increased calf registrations.

This will take Irish production to its highest position in more than a decade, surpassing that in the beef crisis year of 2014, when Irish cattle prices came under sustained pressure.

According to Bord Bia, the Irish food and drink, the sector recorded its seventh consecutive year of export growth last year. Increased output in major sectors and an improvement in market demand for key categories boosted the value of trade.

However, lower trade to the UK than may have been expected, triggered by the challenges of exchange rates and subsequent competitive pressure, did have an impact.

Bord Bia has calculated that the fall in the value of sterling following Britain’s Brexit vote, cost Irish food and drink exporters €570m last year alone.

Although not confirmed by HMRC data, Bord Bia claims the volume of Irish beef destined for the UK fell last year, largely due to the erosion in competitiveness brought about by the weakening of sterling against the euro. Beef exports to the UK were worth around €1.1bn, which was 3% down on 2015 levels.

Not surprisingly, the beef trade for Irish producers is expected to be a particularly challenging one in 2017, unless it can make some gains in international markets.

A high profile success was getting access to the United States in 2015 – the first European country to do so since the BSE export ban was imposed 20 years ago. Following that, trade got off to a slow start, given the problematic approval of manufacturing beef.

However, the decision by the US to extend its approval for Irish beef to include manufacturing beef, was seen as a huge endorsement of Irish production and regulatory systems and could potentially provide a significant boost to the Irish sector in the long run.

Short-term, however, while grass-fed hormone-free beef is gaining momentum in the US, the extent to which it would take product away from the UK is likely to be insignificant for the foreseeable future, if at all, according to AHDB beef and lamb.

As such, a large proportion of the increased production this year will be available to the UK market.

What will matter most to the Irish is the competitive position of it in the UK, which will be very much influenced by the sterling/euro exchange rate.