A HIGHER carryover of lambs coupled with a mild winter is not only resulting in a disappointing sheep trade, but also an increased number of overweight, overfat hoggs that are pulling prices down further.

Ten days into March and lamb prices remain stubbornly low with the trade virtually 20p per live kg less than last year and some 30p lower than in 2015. On Monday, the overall average in Scotland levelled at 165.8p per kg, which was 0.4p up on the previous week, with an SQQ of 168.2p, while on Tuesday, the overall figure slipped 0.3p, to 167.2p, against an SQQ of 169.1p.

More disappointing is the fact that prices are slightly higher south of the Border, with overall values on Monday up 3.4p on the week to level at 170.1p, with an SQQ of 176.9p, while on Tuesday, prices improved by 2.2p on the previous seven days to 170.4p with an SQQ of 175.8p.

It's at this time of year that old season lamb values traditionally start to improve, but with reports of increased numbers coming forward, many of which don't meet the spec', those in the know are far from optimistic for the remainder of the season.

"I really don't think there will be a massive rise in the lamb price for the remainder of the 2016 lamb crop as there are a lot more sheep in certain areas of the country compared to last year," Archie Hamilton, sheep auctioneer at C and D Auction Marts' largest sheep market in the UK, at Longtown.

Backing up these statements he added: "Last week we sold 5350 prime hoggs to average 177p per live kg which compares to the same sale in 2016 when we sold 4400 hoggs at 194p.

"There are a lot of 44-48kg lambs about that are too heavy and too fat which are no good for the export or the butchers market. We're also seeing a lot of lambs that for all they will kill out at 22-23kg, are just too fat for the market. We're even seeing a good number of Cheviots that are too fat for the market whereas the Blackies appear to be holding up to the extra grass better," said Mr Hamilton who said much of the increase weight and fat was down to the milder winter and excess grass compared to previous years.

However, on a more positive note he did say that trade remains buoyant for the top end of the market.

"I do think the best quality lambs will get dearer as they are already scarce. There is already a tremendous premium for quality lambs – last week we were selling 39kg Beltex lambs at £110 per head plus or 292p per kg," said Mr Hamilton.

But the reality is that increased sheep numbers are on the ground. Figures from the AHDB reveal the size of the UK sheep flock on December 1, 2016, had increased by 3% on the year to 11.25m head. Most of this increase was due to a much larger number of lambs on farm, with the size of the breeding flock growing by 1% to reach 6.69m head – the largest breeding flock in England since 2006, which also points to an increased lamb crop in 2017, depending on the incidence of Schmallenberg.

The number of other sheep on farms in England on 1 December 2016, was up a massive 7% on the year, to 4.56m head – the largest carryover of lambs in England in almost 20 years – which according to the report is attributable to a larger 2016 lamb crop and poorer conditions through the summer and autumn meaning lambs were slower to finish.

The size of the flock in Northern Ireland was also larger in December, increasing 3% to reach 1.36m head, driven by growth in the number of lambs on farms. The size of the breeding flock was a similar size to that seen in the previous year at 0.91m head, while the number of lambs on farm was up by 13% at 0.39m head.

Closer to home, Stuart Ashworth, head of economics at Quality Meat Scotland, also believes the number of finishing lambs on Scottish holdings was higher at December 1, 2016, compared to the previous year, but that the number of breeding sheep will be on a par.

He also said there is the possibility lamb values could improve on the run up to Easter, when historically there has always been a good demand for lamb.

However, for those finishers who paid £50-£60 per head for store lambs in the back end and are waiting for the trade to rise to £80-£90, they might have a long time to wait...