WITH prime and store cattle values growing steadily dearer, it seems the cull cow trade is following suit, with the GB overall cow price, as of the week ended March 24, the highest since July, 2013, according to data from AHDB and Quality Meat Scotland. 

Cow prices have been rallying in recent months and the overall GB cow average now sits around 25p per kg higher than the five-year-average at 257p per kg, a rise of 1.8p on the week, with a premium paid for Scottish cows, which sit at 284.4p. There was, however, a reduction in the value of cows meeting the -04L specification for GB cows as a whole which levelled at 278.2p, a drop of .07p on the week, while cows grading -04L in Scotland cashed in to average 284.4p. 

After the GB overall cow price recorded a sharp decline towards the end of 2013, it stayed there for two years before UK slaughterings of cows increased in 2015 due, mostly, to poor milk prices. However, the removal of EU milk quotas saw some EU member states look to increase milk production despite the low prices, and in those countries there was no increase in the number of cows slaughtered. This increase in milk production following the removal of milk quotas put farmgate milk prices under further pressure, leading to consolidation and a renewed drive for efficiency in the UK dairy industry. 

Continued lower milk prices into 2016 led to higher cow cullings in historic terms, weighing on the price for cows. Milk prices recovered during 2017, reducing the number of cows coming forwards, high supplies of cow beef on the European market post the cull of many Dutch dairy cows, which weighed on the price to a degree.

Compared to prices in other key European countries, the UK price has typically been one of the highest. However, French prices are higher as cow beef is often seen as the preferred choice of beef in France. Since the EU referendum exchange rates have improved the competitiveness of UK cull cows with prices falling below Irish values.

While trade data does not distinguish between cow beef and prime beef, exports of fresh/frozen carcases and half carcases during the month of January increased by 500 tonnes (45%) to 1700 tonnes, in comparison to year earlier levels. Although some of these carcases will be from prime beef, many will be cow carcases. This is compared to UK exports of 9500 tonnes of fresh/frozen beef, a rise of 900 tonnes or 11%, to the traditional EU countries, while total imports of fresh/frozen beef in January remained steady on the year, although within that the UK did import less fresh product and more frozen product.

Further afield, EU exports of fresh/frozen beef to the rest of the world grew by 122% (128,100 tonnes) between 2008 and 2017, to 233,300 tonnes, according to the latest data from the European Commission. Exports of beef to the Philippines has grown sharply over the past few years to 15,000 tonnes in 2017, compared to just four tonnes 10 years ago. 

Demand for manufacturing beef within the EU is currently reported to be strong while global demand for beef is increasing slightly, and much of this will be manufactured beef, to which cow beef lends itself, therefore global prices for cow beef are increasing as demand heats up. Against this, global beef production is also expected to continue increasing and as always the balance depending upon if the change in supplies out strips the change in demand will of course determine the price.