Almost every farmer today is facing a very difficult period – in fact it could be described as dangerous, all because of one word, volatility.

This is largely being caused by the war in Ukraine and certainly Brexit has a part to play in the uncertain times ahead.

There are many examples of this volatility – one arable farmer in the East sold some of his grain on contract when at its peak, for delivery in January. On the same day, a load left the farm at the current spot price, resulting in a £4000 difference in the two artic loads of the same grain out of the same store!

A long-time dairy farmer friend who produces 6000 litres per day, will be 6p/ litre less by the time you read this article, which amounts to over £11,000 drop in his milk cheque per month and I am told there are more price drops to follow.

I am also reliably informed that a Central Scotland milk processor has indicated if there is a spring flush, farmers can expect the milk price to start with a 2..! If this were to happen, it could only lead to empty milk shelves on every supermarket and it will be very quick.

With cull cow prices at their current level, it will not take long for milk production to drop by vast amounts. There is no denying that 2022 was a better year for milk producers, but you have to remember that it was much needed following the few tough years before 2022, so there was a great deal of catching up required.

Seriously, if the milk price drops to unsustainable and predicted levels, how soon will Scotland be down to 500 or less milk producers? Scotland peaked in 1953 with 8150 dairy farms!

In contrast, in the beef sector values are going too fast in a different direction. Let us go back a little with some statistics. Here are the average price for deadweight paid in Scotland, excluding any breed premium:

2012 – 354.6p The 2013 high was due to 'Horsegate' when some were paid over £4/kg.

2013 – 399.3p Then, look what happened the following year.

2014 – 359.8p Does history repeat itself?

2015 – 360.5p

2016 – 351.1p

2017 – 372.9p

2018 – 373.1p

2019 – 339.6p

2020 – 363.4p

2021 – 406.1p

2022 – 435.3p

So, where are we now and that may be different by the time you read this column? Let’s start with the store trade which, since sales began in January, 500-plus kg cattle have risen by £200-250 per head and below 500kg, around £200 per head.

UA's 'Aberfeldy' sale set the crazy trend upwards, with plenty of sellers securing £200/head up on last year, all helped by a large turnout of English buyers taking around a third of the 2000 cattle South.

As usual, in the UA foyer, there was a bit of banter before the start of the sale, with a senior gentleman asking Donald Young if he had plenty of sparrows in the rafters today. ‘No, no,' retorted Donald, 'I have done away with the sparrows and replaced them with hawks, because they bid faster!’ Trust Donald to have a sharp answer.

The truth is, the trade was so good even the hawk was redundant, although his pen did appear at his mouth on a few occasions! The average at Thainstone was a penny less than UA on February 24 but I would say it was the dearest sale of store cattle I have ever witnessed in my life, albeit I was on the laptop!

With around 30 lots at £2000, or above, with a peak of £2570. Some went South to England, but about 100 stayed with a North-east finisher. Do not ask me what margin is made from cattle costing on average over £2000.

Having said that, I received a text from a finisher in Wales who had just been paid £5/kg for R grade continentals and that was for week ending February 24. I am also being told that the weight limits have been lifted in the south and there is a rumour, from that part of the world – and it is no more than a rumour – that UK abattoir chills have only four days beef in store, awaiting delivery. Normally, at this time of year there might be more than a month’s supply hanging, waiting to find a customer.

So where is Scotland in this beef race to £5/kg? Officially, this past week, we are around 480p/kg for R-grade, with Angus at £5. No longer is there a Scotch Premium and will ‘not be one for a long time to come.

The reason for that is there is not enough competition in Scotland, whereas there is the mass of population in the South, plus the vast number of independent wholesalers, which we do not have in Scotland. What has caused this beef shortage?

Less cattle both in Scotland and England because of Government policy, or lack of it! A generation that does not want to get their hands dirty, calving cows or lambing ewes, who see easier ways of making a living.

Thank goodness there are some exceptions and I see a few at the markets, both boys and girls, who will make very good farmers. A chap was telling me at the market the other day, he had seven neighbours, all beef and sheep farms, and he could only find one out of the seven of the next generation who was going to carry on farming, the others all had work outwith the farm.

Here’s a story for veggies and vegans – a farming couple and other non-farmers both had a week on different cruise ships. For a change they thought they would sample the vast vegetarian/vegan restaurant. Both had no more than a dozen customers.

The following night they dined at the steak restaurant, which were both full to capacity and they had to wait half an hour for their table. That was a true story from two different ships! Who supplied the excellent steaks? – Ireland.

Now we know where some of the Irish beef is finding a home, as it is not coming to the UK for a change! So, to end this beef story, will we in Scotland, see this £5/kg for R-grade cattle? Not if the big four can help it!

England will be the decider. Will we see supermarket shelves short of beef? It is not impossible come June or July and where Ireland decides to send its beef will be a big factor.

Here is my up-to-date report on my rainfall, as it was omitted last time. My total rainfall for last year was 38-inches, exactly the same as my 30-year average.

My three friends who measure rainfall, the farthest away in the South-east at Mindrum, registered 23-inches, up in Forfar it was 41-inches – which is the first time that part of Scotland has had more rainfall than my area near Glasgow – and in the Lockerbie area 41-inches was recorded.