FINISHED beef and sheep prices have been on a bit of a roller coaster in recent years and this volatility is expected to be accentuated in the next few years following the UK’s recent Brexit vote, according to those in the know.
While exchange rates will always have an immediate effect on certain commodities, the key areas of trade, regulation, labour and support are all up for debate with the UK leaving the EU, which, as a result, will cause huge variables and insecurities within the market place.
Speaking at the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board’s Meat Export Conference, Jane King, chief executive of the AHDB, said the decision to leave the EU was a 'game-changer' for UK farming.
“Huge uncertainty hangs over these areas while the UK negotiates its departure from the EU. The most immediate and pressing challenge being to determine what relationship might be entered into in terms of access to the EU single market,” said Ms King.
“Though the importance of the EU single market cannot be understated for UK food businesses, we already have a strong track record in market development outside the EU, having successfully worked with Defra and UKTI to secure market access to China for UK barley and pig meat and India for seed potatoes.
“This area of work will become ever more important once Brexit takes effect.
“However, the industry should clearly be braced for more volatility in currency, input prices and commodities markets as the nature of our new relationship with Europe emerges," she added.
Backing up these statements, Jean Pierre Garnier, head of AHDB livestock exports said there would be three years of “rough seas and uncertainty” ahead for the UK meat trade facing the challenges of tariff and non-tariff barriers. 
However, he pointed out that the UK is well positioned and should have a positive future for exports across the board both to the EU and outside the EU.
He added that 32% of the UK’s pig meat production is exported with 70% going to the EU last year. 
Some 18% of beef is exported of which 92.5% is destined for the EU with the figures for lamb being 37% of production exported and 96.4% heading to the EU.

Read the full trend in this week's issue of The Scottish Farmer, out July 9.