LIVESTOCK producers turned out in force to support the National Sheep Association’s Scotsheep event at Kings Arms, Ballantrae, on Wednesday, but while the day was blessed with glorious sunshine, there are some pretty dark, dismal ones ahead for the sheep industry unless the UK government gets its act together on trade deals post Brexit.

That was the stark warning from Jim McLaren, chairman of Quality Meat Scotland, who pointed out that while the UK is almost two years past that historic European referendum, the industry remains very much in the dark as to how trade will operate.

“There’s no vision from me, just a bit of reality check for where I see the future of the sheep industry. Scotland’s sheep sector is facing a potential doomsday scenario if we have no access to our main trading partner, Europe, and there is unrestricted access of imported lamb from other countries with lower costs of production,” warned Mr McLaren. “I really think Michael Gove has written off the UK sheep industry, so I would urge all of you to camp outside his door from now on.”

He pointed out that while 1.1m lambs are slaughtered every year in Scotland, producing 24,000 tonnes, only 10% of that remains in Scotland. Some 64% of Scottish lambs are slaughtered south of the Border of which 66% is exported to France; 6% to Italy; 24% to the Benelux countries, while the remaining 26% is sold outside the UK. The main problem, Mr McLaren said, revolved around the poor demand for lamb in Scotland, with just 3kg consumed per head per year, compared to 4.5kg in the whole of the UK; 7kg in Greece and 9kg in Australia.

Add that to the fact that Scotland is a whopping 164% self-sufficient in lamb while UK consumers have increased their appetite for the cheaper proteins such as poultry and pork and even ‘flexitarianism’ and Mr McLaren urged all farmers at the event to become ‘lambassadors.’

Isla Roebuck, president of the British Meat Processors and a former president of the Scottish Association of Meat Wholesalers, echoed the huge importance of a trade deal with the EU. 

“Exports to the European Union are crucial to the UK sheep sector, so we need a trade deal. Without one, fresh, chilled sheepmeat on the bone could potentially face a 51% tariff,” he said.

Outwith trade, Mr Roebuck highlighted other important issues that have to be resolved before confidence in the sector would improve.

“There are still so many unknowns: Will we be in the Customs Union or not and if so what type of trade can we expect? Will there be tariffs; will it be a hard/soft or green Brexit; will we get access to labour? Why can’t we all just have a meeting outside Gove’s office, because it is just not happening?” he said.

On the other side of the coin, Scott Donaldson, president of the Institute of Appraisers and Auctioneers in Scotland, warned that the UK could also face increased imports.

“Australia is our biggest threat as their ewe flock is of a similar size to the UK and if there is a change in the trading laws they could increase their exports. Imports from New Zealand are not the same threat they used to be as most of their lamb is exported to Asia now,” said Mr Donaldson. “We have to hope that the Scottish government intends to have a livestock industry in Scotland because the alternative is not worth considering. Without livestock production in the remote areas the social infrastructure will completely disappear in these areas and you can’t feed the world on wild flowers and butterflies.”

On a more positive note, he said live lambs would not be subject to the same level of tariff as red meat and therefore could play a major role post-Brexit, but that of course that all depends on the UK having a live trade.

Awei Fuseini, halal sector manager at the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, was also optimistic for the future as the market for halal meat is “growing at a rate that cannot be ignored.” 

He said 20% of sheepmeat in the UK is consumed by muslims, of which 88% are under 50 years of age and 48% are under 25 years, so there is a growing market for halal meat. Furthermore, a growing percentage of the sheepmeat exported is halal due to increased demand from France and Germany where 6% of the population is now muslim.

“We also need to have a look at the global halal market when there are 1.8bn muslims worldwide, of which two-thirds are under 30 years of age.”

Mr Fuseini also pointed out that there are a lot of misconceptions about halal meat and that it is ‘barbaric.’ Instead he said most halal meat has been slaughtered the same way as conventionally slaughtered animals, as many muslims are happy for animals to be stunned before being slaughtered.