Confidence needed in the Beef Herd

Scotland now falls below 400,000 suckler cows sitting at 394,709 which is a fall of 3.5% since last year and approximately 7% since 2018. English numbers have fallen even quicker with a nearly 12% fall since 2018 and 3.6% since last year.

Yet, while our herd falls the number of registrations of beef sired calves increased with the big thrust with “Beef from the Dairy”. Estimations are that in the next 5 years, 60% of the beef will be a product from the dairy. Numbers have certainly increased since 2018. However, they actually fell last year with Scottish numbers dropping 2.4%. We may have reached the end of increasing numbers as there is only a certain number of dairy cows.

Suckler cow numbers are continuing to fall

Will the future be that Scotch Beef from the Suckler herd will only exist in butchers, designated outlets, or exported? Supermarket shelves will simply look where they can get scale and that could come from “Beef from the Dairy, British or Irish Beef. Can we maintain the critical mass needed for Scotch Beef from Sucker herds?

Yes, we will always need to differentiate our Scotch product to gain a premium in the marketplace but is it correct we try and differentiate within our own product? When beef is in abundance then that is the time to try and make your product stand out in the marketplace and gain a premium whether organic, pasture fed, breed specific or how it is reared but with lowering supply it is very hard to gain a further premium on your product. We must move our product together such as “Scotch Beef” / Carbon neutral or positive and not subdivisions.

*How our product fits*

The subject of meat eating quality is often raised. Yes, we are absolutely right to look at this, but will the powers support this way of payment in the future. Many feel we don’t have an ideal starting point being disadvantaged lies in that we lack consistency /uniformity. For the number of Suckler cows in the UK we have the greatest number of breeds than anywhere in the world. However, that might be good for specific sales/ butchers, etc in how they market.

How will we seek standardisation and uniformity to provide to the marketplace especially for the retailers. There are no doubt countries such as the USA and Australia can each day provide large numbers of standardised genetics, weight,s and breeds fed on the same diet from their large feed lots which continue to expand where they do not face the same challenges in how they are dealing with the climate issues. Yet within our herds supplying low numbers to the processors they are giving significant differences each day with variations in genetics, weight, finish, and diets fed.

*Current cattle trade*

Deadweight cattle prices are at 490p/495p/kg with Angus and other specific scheme cattle holding 15p to 20p more. The hope is this can hold but forces may look to draw it back a bit in the New Year but then it could lift in line with last year when supply was short, especially in April 2023. However Southern Irish beef has been for some time at only about 400p/kilo and only recently lifted 20p/kilo to 30p/kilo. We must always take note when many of the UK processors are Irish owned.

Scottish prices continue to fluctuate throughout the year. Prices were at a high level of 515p/520p /kg in late spring/early summer 2023 to then fall to a low level in August 2023 of nearer 460p- 470p equating to around £180 to £200 reduction. This was at a time when a number of those finished cattle were well paid for as stores in early spring. Then again in autumn 2023 store sales held firm with finishers again paying excellent rates for cattle especially strong Continental types.

Cull cow process continues to be at a lower rate than seems for some time at approximately 365p/kg, but it is hoped this will rise when the demand increases after New Year for the mince and other lower cuts when bills have to be paid. Many beef cull cows have been at £1,700 to over £2,000 and the realisation now that cull cows are no longer a 'by-product' but actually a 'product' has allowed many to look at how they operate a replacement policy with more heifers now coming into herds and cows sold to maximise returns and as a result a more efficient herd.

For any margin, the price needs to stay firm with the finisher. The calf producer had an expensive winter 2023/23 and needed those prices received.

What the industry needs is a system for those seeing finished cattle to get an agreement to get a mechanism in place so that the price received will not (or should not) fall below a certain level which helps build some confidence when forward planning and budgeting. This gives confidence back in the marketplace when purchasing stores. Finishers do not want to simply just pay less for stores as this achieves very little as both the producers and finishers need each other. Retailers do not move prices paid to the processors on a weekly basis. They are well budgeted in front.

*Live markets*

With changes in the processors recently and the perceived dominance by some then it certainty hits home how the auction markets system is vital to maintain price competition. We must maintain the auction market system. It is competition “A horse never runs so fast as when he has other horses to catch up and outpace”. north of England live markets selling finished cattle certainly have revitalised how cattle are sold over the last year.

It is encouraging to see the continuation of English buyers at store sales who keep the market healthy. Coming north to Scotland suits them with the availability of stores bred from beef suckler cows and the low risk of TB issues compared to the south of England.

*Choosing the right system*

Recent findings and reports tell us that we need to simply just finish quicker as that will address the climate debate of lowering our emissions. Again we spend our time looking and debating within.

“Farming looks mighty easy when your plough is the pencil and you’re a thousand miles away from the field”.

Simply there is the place for both with our large Continental breeds suited to fast finishing on grain diets while our more maternal/traditional types suit the grass-based systems. We are matching our systems to what suits the farm best.

Yes, cereal intensive systems can have lower emissions when they are using homegrown cereals, maintaining good yields, and efficiently use of fertiliser, and manure back on the land while limiting purchases. Using by products is also attractive.

The best forage-based systems are comparable to a number of intensive systems due to their efficient use of grass, clover, high quality forages, and the right genetics for the system. It’s not about one being better than the other, it’s just about maximising your system and what suits you best. Getting the genetics and systems right for your system is the most important. Our farms and climate vary and so one size does not fit all.

*How we farm*

For any uptake in government policy in areas such as environmental objectives including biodiversity then the agricultural community has to be on a confident economic footing to actually adopt it. You cannot have it both ways in wanting to question the livestock sector yet then want farmers to adopt the changes. Putting pressure on it will not lead to a sector willing or indeed having the desire to uptake any policy and policy will struggle to be met. We should not hide from this. Beef farmers are facing many challenges from all directions. They need a little help, a little hope, and the right people to believe in them.

Whatever is spoken about in that we should be seeking regenerative and sustainability practices, nobody should feel that is against what they are currently doing. It is simply a collective term in seeking to improve and protect our soils and so maximise our ability to farm well while aiming for profitability. It all starts from the soil. Many already do much of these practices such as outwintering, cover crops, crop rotation, and putting good home produced organic manure back into the ground.

There is an opportunity to drive for low carbon beef and a strategy with a path was given to allow efficient production and lower emissions, but somehow what was seen as positive amongst the industry was sidelined. They were thinking well ahead as did “Noah who built the Ark long before it rained”. To many, it is now raining. Considerable time and effort went into the report by leading figures and those with the knowledge needed. Farmers make decisions quickly and some may react if assurance is not given to them that there is a desire for food security and they play an important role in it.

In any moment of decision, the best thing you can do is the right thing, the next best thing is the wrong thing, and the worst thing you can do is nothing. We cannot hide from reality. It is not the time for policy to be “going slowly in the right direction” as many just cannot wait and when policy arrives there it will have been too little, too late.

The knock on effect is that those countries faced with such targets will simply see others on the world stage who clearly do not face or even bother with the climate issues fill the gaps with their continuing land clearances and feedlots.

*What cannot be ignored?*

Beef cows do not just provide calves for meat, but they play a crucial part in reaching our environment and biodiversity objectives. Both need each other. To accomplish this then all those with an interest or a view need to come to be tougher as currently, we have so many all producing similar work.

We often can fall by putting our messages out simply directed to the already converted within Agriculture.

The industry would benefit if there were clearly specified outlets of professional communicators who could work closely with our bodies to target the right audience correctly out with Agriculture. This is vital especially in areas of the “Climate Debate” with so much misinformation and the need to quickly react in a structured and joined up/together way. “It is amazing what you can accomplish if you do not care who gets the credit “- Harry Truman.

Food does not simply appear, and those who believe that we can just import it are really failing to understand that this puts reliance on others and with situations lately in areas such as Ukraine and Africa.

We are a nation that can produce and we have an asset to do it with – water. If we want success, then don’t rely on other people to do what we can do. Such is the changing climate that now in the south of England, they can now support over 10,000 acres of vineyards.

We need to realise we have what is needed to produce food and huge encouragement is needed to allow our farmers to do just that.