Stats that simply don't add up

That certainly sprung to my mind when I read recent reports of the 2017 harvest published by the Scottish Government’s chief statistician.

I can only imagine this individual has been on an extended holiday abroad if he really believes these provisional figures summarise the harvest of 2017.

Apparently, the harvest is 12% bigger than last year, with production of wheat and barley 8% up on the 10-year average and cereal yields up 11%.

Thankfully, we haven’t had to struggle through a harvest in Dumfries-shire, looking after grazing fields has been a big enough challenge. But I have spoken to enough people who have had that joy to endure – indeed many who are still at it – to wonder what planet these stats are for, because it doesn’t look like Scotland to me.

Driving around the country, the evidence of the horrendous harvest of 2017 is everywhere to see.

The galling sight of fields tracked and rutted with bits missed and puddles in hollows doesn’t really have the feel of a good harvest, never mind the fettle of the poor folk trying to earn a living from these swamps.

Thousands of acres of straw which may never be baled and the thousands of bales still steaming in fields around the country that are of use to neither biomass nor beast, as prices hit record highs.

It will be really interesting to see the ‘final numbers’ for the harvest of 2017 later on, once the truth finally filters through to the chief statistician. I bet the ‘adjustments’ will be fairly significant.

Surely, given the worst autumn conditions since 1985, people deserve more recognition than this type of insensitive press release.

But if it wasn’t enough that the statistics are a kick in the teeth for the folk still trying to dig 30% moisture barley out of grain tanks on combines, for some bizarre reason Fergus Ewing felt he had to comment as well.

In a recent statement, he at least acknowledged that ‘some farmers were continuing to struggle with the fifth wettest summer on record’ – another statistic that masks the true picture of the impact of the last two months.

But it was his advice to all of us at the end of his statement that made the hairs on the back of my neck bristle and I’m not even really caught up in this.

I quote ‘farmers should remain mindful of the importance of resilience and planning within their businesses and I (Fergus) would encourage them to consider the use of innovative techniques and best practices to help further increase efficiency and become more resilient to future challenges and shocks’.

I have several gripes at this condescending statement, apart from issuing it in the first place as folk try to rescue their livelihoods.

Firstly, planning for a weather event like the last few months is impossible – we all know that. And the ‘use of innovative modern equipment’ is probably one of the main reasons harvest has happened at all.

I’m not sure if equipment from 10 years ago would have coped with the salvage job this harvest has become in several parts of Scotland. So, how can preaching about planning help anyone who is caught up in this mess?

Secondly, planning or budgeting for anything that his own department has been responsible for administering over the last two or three years has been all but impossible, so how about practising what you preach?

‘Using innovative techniques and best practice’ to get the BPS IT system functioning properly after three years would do everyone more good than putting out press releases about a crap harvest. If you have nothing useful to say, say nothing would be my advice.

And thirdly, the ‘future challenges and shocks’ that our industry are likely to face, notwithstanding a changing climate, are all politically motivated or inspired.

The small matter of Brexit and the totally inadequate and chaotic response of the UK and devolved Governments to this massive event is staggering. The UK is nowhere close to a deal with the EU and few coherent plans or back up plans exist for the event itself.

There is no sign of any strategy for individual sectors (farming and food being one of them) for post the event and there appears to be little or no engagement in any level of detail between the UK and devolved governments even this far into the process.

Surely the time for political points-scoring in all of this is long gone? The future of tens of thousands of businesses across the UK depends on this, as well as the livelihoods of millions of individuals.

However, astonishingly this still seems to be a secondary consideration to Tory Party in-fighting and cross border political bun fights, which are mostly characterised by ‘he said, she said’, getting us all precisely nowhere.

The sooner all politicians remember that their primary role is to serve the needs of the people that elected them and not to pursue their own agendas, the sooner we may actually get some progress in this Brexit mess.

As if that wasn’t enough, this comes on the back of another recent ScotGov announcement about further delayed subsidy payments hidden in a document bizarrely called a ‘CAP plan for stabilisation’.

From what I can see, all this does is inform us a bit sooner than the last couple of years that we will be paid late for pretty much everything again this year.

But, hopefully, not so late that ScotGov miss the payment window of the end of June, 2018, to avoid EU fines.

We are also once again getting offered a loan for some of our support payments. I find this really interesting as I always thought that a loan was a transaction where one business or individual had funds and lent the money to a business or individual that needed or wanted to borrow those funds.

So something must have got lost in the translation of this latest loan from ScotGov. It just so happens that it has ended up with a payment system that is so crap it is incapable of passing these funds to the intended recipients on time.

But make no mistake, these are our funds already – so how can we get a loan of our own money?

Once again, instead of actually acknowledging the predicament of individuals impacted by ongoing incompetence and inadequate customer service, spinning a story to make it look as if there really is a plan or a good news story seems to be the order of the day.

So, while this pantomime continues, in the real world 90% of our cows and calves are now inside on full winter rations after a total of 140 days at grass.

With full silage pits, I realise we are lucky compared to many who are short of fodder, straw or still battling with harvesting or drilling.

So, I have a message for politicians, for a change from hard-pressed farmers instead of them preaching at us: “Believe me you already have to be resilient to be able to, or want to farm in Scotland right now, we don’t need you to tell us!”