What is NFUS trying to prove?

Let us hope it is better than the one to which we have just said goodbye!

Having said that and as this is the time I usually look into my crystal ball to visualise the year ahead, I am afraid I am not too optimistic about that prospect, but then, neither are many other industries!

Even in my so-called twilight years I still enjoy that 5:15 am rise and while I am either on a tractor and feeder wagon or a material handler, I can listen to Radio Scotland.

The first half hour is the money programme when they spend more time than is necessary discussing when interest rates are going to go up which some of these so-called experts have been predicting for years that it is going to happen soon.

When the banks crashed back in 2007 and interest base rates dropped to 0.5%, I wrote in this column that it would be 10 years before we would see it rise. It looks as though this dumb farmer will be nearer right than those highly paid economists!

The other subjects with which they are obsessed is oil and metals such as gold, copper and tin for example. Now, if we think farming is bad, you should have listened to the reporter on the oil situation in the North Sea and the effect it is having on the Western oil capital, Aberdeen, where there has been in excess of 5000 redundancies.

The value of oil and metals, in some cases, has more than halved from their peak of just a few years ago, which is not dissimilar to what is happening to the products farmers produce.

Fortunately, I cannot recall any that have halved, although many have taken a leathering in value. The disappointing aspect of the food chain is that the food we produce for supermarkets has not come back by the same percentage as the primary producer has to endure!

Take one example - when beef was at £4-20 per kg ex farm deadweight, steaks on the shop shelves were on average £20 per kg. Beef is now back at £3-50, yet the shop price is still £20 per kg.

Making matters worse, steak in most restaurants costs £20 plus for an 8oz slice.

One product that was rising in value when oil prices went up was fertiliser but unfortunately it has not fallen at the same rate.

So, I am afraid there is only one message coming from the crystal ball for 2016. We farmers need to take our foot off the pedal and produce less of almost everything we grow in one way or another.

With returns so low, one wonders why this is not happening.

I am afraid the answer is that a farmer's desire is to farm well and do it better. I do not expect to see land values rising in 2016, but let's hope that they do not do the same as oil because if that were to happen then our industry really would be in trouble - serious trouble!

One thing which I feel needs to happen is to tell the conservationists that the only way to reduce all the flooding is to go back to dredging all of the UK rivers and in many cases their tributaries.

It is the only way to solve this flooding problem. All the money spent on flood barriers would be much more sensibly spent on cleaning out the rivers in order to let the water flow out to sea.

How much rain have I had in 2015? - 46.5 inches. Here are the statistics for the highest in the last 30 years, of which there are five - 1985, 48.5"; 1998, 48.25"; 2000, 46.25"; 2002, 49"; 2011, 46.75" - with the lowest being 2003, of 25.75". My average over the past 30 years is 38.5". My wish for 2016 would be for another low.

Following a subject I touched on last month regarding 'new beef spec's', the situation is now becoming more clear. They are designed to do one thing - reduce the price farmers receive for prime cattle.

My view is that short term it will be painful. Longer term there will be less beef around and the real damage is, that very soon, beef is going to be harder to sell because it is going to be so lean with no flavour or taste.

We need some fat, particularly marbling, if we are to have a product that the consumer will purchase time and again, otherwise it is going to be a product that you will have to cover in some kind of sauce to make it edible!

Since I am in statistical mode, here are the last five years average dw prices paid in Scotland - 2011, 319 .0p/kg; 2012, 354.4p; 2013, 399.3p; 2014 ; 359.8p; and 2015, 360.5p

Horsegate took store cattle values to double what they had been seven years earlier and have stayed there, in spite of prime stock dropping by around £150/head, which means that finishers face some tough decisions when store cattle sales resume in earnest next week.

One of two things will happen - either store cattle take a drop or finishers will continue to lose money, which is unsustainable.

Last month, I ran out of space to comment on the AgriScot seminar. I have attended them since they started, and found them informative, as I am sure all who attended will agree.

It is the one occasion when all interested and involved in our industry have the opportunity to hear both our farm minister and the NFUS president. One can attend whether one is a union member or not.

Back in November, the hall was packed as full as I have ever seen. This time it was different and I am not quite sure what agenda the NFUS had in mind?

Were they trying to prove to the large audience how good they were at trying to humiliate the Cabinet Secretary, Richard Lochhead, or were they trying to prove to the large audience that they were a better lobbying group than the environmentalists, who seem to be winning at the moment?

I am afraid they failed on both counts. We have known for 18 months since this latest CAP review was announced, that it was a shambles.

We have known from the start that most of us would be receiving around half of the support we were getting historically, with the intensive livestock farmers suffering significantly.

The blame for this firstly lies with Ciolos and Brussels, where the environmental and green lobby certainly have the power and, secondly, at Westminster, which refused to give Scotland its convergence cash.

The blame for the mess also lies at both the NFUS and ScotGov doors, largely because of the tapering over five years and the difficulty of programming a computer to handle it.

I can tell you that this CAP reform shambles is causing difficulty in almost every EU member state. Let us hope that future AgriScot seminars do not become dominated by orchestrated NFUS questions. Maybe an independent chairman would be a step in the right direction!

Now, on the first day of a new year, as I pen those notes, it is heartening to see the sun shining from behind the clouds from time to time, giving us hope that spring is just around the corner when I see the dark green grass in every direction. I even mowed my lawn on December 27.

Sheep are certainly enjoying what looks like a fresh bite, spring flowers are popping up in the garden and even a rose bush is still blooming - so it is not all doom and gloom.

In last week's publication, John Fyall was a breath of fresh air with his thoughts, which I seem to have prompted (one thing in this industry we are never short of are views and thoughts from all generations). Many of us learnt our debating skills through the YFC and we were certainly not short of that at the various family gatherings that have taken place this past week.

Besides beef discussions, I just need to mention the state of the dairy industry and I am kept right up to date by my son-in-law who milks nearly 1000 cows when they peak in May.

With forked tongue in cheek, I would say the Inland Revenue will definitely be receiving less cash into its coffers from agriculture, because the tax bill that farming produces will be massively less than what has been generated in years past.