I'M TOLD a drowning man doesn't tend to worry about what he's going to have for dinner - and with the Scottish Government new support payment computer still saying 'no' to a fair proportion of claimants, I guess that's the position a lot of folk in our industry find themselves in.

But with the next big wave of the EU in/out referendum set to hit us in only a few months, giving some thought to where our next meal ticket is likely to be coming from might not be a bad idea -even as we tread water to keep our heads above the rising tide of bills.

With big hitters like Boris Johnston and the UK's farming minister, George Eustice, coming out in favour of leaving the EU, there's now maybe some hope that things might get rattled up enough to get a decent debate on the issue up and running.

Because, so far, it looks like the establishment has learned nothing from the 2014 Scottish independence referendum - and early signs were that it was set to adopt the 'Daddy knows best' approach it took on that one - right up until the last minute panic and hasty promises.

However, it looks like the EU referendum is also going to be close run thing and will, once again, be swung by the relatively small group of voters who haven't yet decided - as it would take nothing short of a miracle to change the voting intentions of those who have long-since made up their minds.

Like the indy ref, what people seem to be asking for - and are patently failing to get - from the debate are some hard facts and figures and reasoned arguments as to the shape of things to come, whichever route the country decides to take.

It certainly looks like things are going to be finely balanced right up to the very end - and although there seems to be a prevailing line of thought in the farming world that anything other than staying in will end in chaos, I doubt if the larger proportion of the population will necessarily be thinking the same way.

A number of reports drawn up by academics and economists in recent weeks have at least given a bit of a hint as to how things could pan out for the farming industry under the two options.

They all tend to focus on four or five main points - the effects on our trading relationship with Europe and the rest of the world; the benefits of having our more-often-listened-to continental cousins on our side in support discussions; the effects on the free movement and availability of seasonal labour; the possibilities, or otherwise, of side-stepping much of the regulation and red tape which goes with the EU; and, of course, the future of support payments.

However, what I haven't seen is a big flow chart which would highlight how things might pan out for Scotland's farmers. The first branch in the chart would obviously revolve around the decision the country takes in June as to whether we stay in or leave the EU.

A majority vote for staying in would probably be the most simple outcome as far as the farming industry was concerned, with markets, seasonal workers and support measures still pretty much continuing as is. However, the weakening of the pound which has been helping prices recently might be reversed once uncertainty was removed and any substantial strengthening would hit prices and export opportunities for our goods, much of which go to Europe.

An 'out' vote, with the majority voting to leave in both England and Scotland would, you might imagine be fairly conclusive and bring into effect all the benefits and problems which have been raised in the economic analyses mentioned above.

It would be a shock for farming as we would then be facing the as-yet-unknown - and apparently undiscussed by Defra - 'Plan B' for a British Agricultural Policy. No one knows for sure, but most suspect it would be a safe bet to plan for it being less supportive than what we currently have.

However, an 'out' vote might not be as clean a cut as all that. Two years - or, in all probability, longer if all sides agree - are set aside to discuss exactly how any member state will pull out of the EU. And since this would be the first time a member state had left, two years might be a conservative estimate for discussions.

Some parties have even indicated that this period might actually be the time in which Britain negotiates the sort of deal David Cameron was looking for to persuade us to remain within the union - rather than the rather weak one with which he returned. It certainly wouldn't be the first time the EU has allowed a second national referendum on an issue when it felt the voters hadn't got it right the first time round.

Another possible outcome would be for the UK as a whole to vote to leave - but with a majority of Scots voting to remain in. Now it's not a certainty that this would trigger another independence referendum, but it is undoubtedly a possibility.

Farmers, in particular, would face a tough choice here. For the 'head not heart' aspect of remaining within the EU, with the continued security it meant for their businesses, was widely used to justify the industry's leaning to a 'no' vote during the first Scottish independence referendum.

So, this aspect could be turned on its head this time round. However, it's worth remembering that while the EU is the biggest export market for UK food and agricultural produce, England very much fills this role for Scottish food and farm exports. But if we carry this train of thought on further -and Scotland votes for independence and then to re-enter the EU, where would farmers stand?

Leaving the trading aspect to one side and looking at support measures, would we go back in to resume 'business as usual' as currently laid out? Or would we find ourselves, as all new entrant nations have done, receiving only a portion of the farm support levels enjoyed by established states in the early years?

Even if we did - and bearing in mind the fact that we're pretty close to the bottom of payment pile at the moment - under the EU's convergence regulations where support levels are supposed to gravitate to the same level for all, it might not take us long to build up to levels higher than those we're currently being paid!

It's certainly a lot to take in - but it does highlight the fact that our current problems aren't the only threats in a sea of troubles.