By Jim Brown

VERY FEW areas of Scotland will be celebrating July’s changeable and less than dry weather conditions.

Here, in the Northern tip of Lanarkshire, we had 4.5-inches of rain, which was less than the 6-inches we had last year, when almost every animal was back inside by the end of the month, rather than ruin good grass.

After an inch of rain, with thunder and lightning on July 20, it looked as if we were going to have a repeat of 2012 and 2014. Fortunately, the last five days of July have seen an improvement and I would be delighted if we did not see any rain again until October!

Having viewed a large area of Aberdeenshire and Morayshire, even with its free-draining light soil, October might even be early enough for them too! That would allow harvest of the many crops in those areas to be safely gathered in.

The Defra appointments for UK farming that the new Prime Minister, Theresa May, has made, did not make for good reading. Both Andrea Leadsom, the environmental minister, and her farm minister – who is no longer at the Cabinet table – have a past record that does not bode well for the future of our industry!

Both seem opposed to any financial support for agriculture. I certainly do not envy my friend, Meurig Raymond’s job as NFU president in his negotiations in the run up to Brexit.

Fortunately, he should have stone-wall support from the NFU of the three devolved countries. However, that might not count for much because I fear Westminster will return to the policies of 40 years ago, before we joined the EU.

The theme tune then was to import food from anywhere in the world so long as it was cheap – no matter what the conditions and standards at which it is produced.

The only real hope for farmers in the future is that sterling takes a 10 to 15% drop in value against the euro and dollar. If that happens, then it will curtail the dumping of anything that can be sourced cheaply onto our markets.

So, does that leave Scottish agriculture in a good or a bad position? Every farmer I know would love to make a living from farming without any subsidies or as I prefer to call it ‘Production support’.

Many months ago, this column asked the question – could we survive without support? Bear in mind, we have had support since the 1947 Act following World War 2.

Back then, the reason was that our nation needed to be fed. I can even recall ration books being used.

During my lifetime, that situation has dramatically changed, so that now we are producing too much food, with every supermarket shelf overladen with every type of edible item one could imagine.

I wonder how much of that food on these shelves has financial support?

Bear one thing in mind, no one can eat without a farmer. So, the real question is, how much does that food on the supermarket shelf have to rise in order to keep we producers in business?

Some non-farmers would say that we farmers need to reduce our cost of production. Many of us would say that we have cut our costs to the bone.

Certainly, there are few farm accounts showing substantial profits. In fact, the vast majority are showing losses with a small percentage showing profit and only a fraction making adequate margins in farming – the majority of them have some form of renewables’ income!

What would happen to land and rent values if our industry was to lose all food production support? How many farms would come on the market on top of that which we already have? – I am led to believe they would more than fill every page of this publication.

When I started farming, interest rates were 4.5%. They peaked at 22% and by the time you read this publication, they could be at zero. How is that for volatility?

We have become used to that word – volatility. If we lost all food support, would we need to find another word that was more extreme?

Many years ago, I made predictions regarding the milk industry and, sadly, most of them have come true. Even though I have to say that some of these predictions were done with a certain amount of tongue in cheek!

This time I do not have any reservations. All sectors of our industry which currently rely on food production support have only a few years left to have their business in a position that they can continue to farm without that terrible word, subsidies.

Recollecting my time in farming again, there has only been two factors in place that has left us making real satisfactory margins and that is scarcity and currency working in our favour. Maybe they will both come into play when there is no food support.

From many people in the beef industry, I have had a great deal of support for an idea that will revolutionise the beef sector. I have been talking about it for years and now, with Brexit in sight, the golden opportunity will arise that could rid the sector of a grading system that is no longer fit for purpose.

If our new farm minister wants to leave a legacy of his time in office, now is the opportunity for Fergus Ewing to do so. He needs to start banging some heads together.

The knowledge is there in our industry, from Nuffield Scholars to the many who have travelled the world looking at how the sector works elsewhere, including SAMW members and QMS directors.

However, he should remember that a committee works best with an odd number and three is too many! So I am suggesting to Fergus, sorry, Cabinet Secretary, that we do not require a vast commission, nor a large amount of money spent on this much needed change.

There are three excellent grading systems in the world that recognises quality beef – in Australia, Canada, and US. The adoption of any of them would be a huge step in the right direction if Scotch beef is going to be competitive in the World after Brexit.

At the moment, we are riding on the back of a brand, not on consistency, flavour and taste. Yes, much of our beef is excellent but too many consumers, as John Elliot said last week, have a less than satisfactory experience, causing their next purchase to be either chicken or pork, or something else.

As John said, the EUROP grading scale and the show ring are no longer fit for purpose. The late Ian Galloway said many times, that what we need is length and breadth of carcase, and to pay more for what we need and less for what we do not really want.

So, what I am trying to say to Scotland’s largest sector leaders is waken up to reality. Set in motion a much needed change, if Scotch beef is to have any future after Brexit when it will have to compete in a much more competitive market.

If it does not, then, in five to 10 years we will not have a beef sector as we know it today, because the three aforementioned countries will have taken over our market with a more flavoursome, succulent, tasty product with proven consistency.

Those can be attributed to their grading system, plus the size and shape of their suckler cows are much easier to look after and maintain.

If we are to survive outside the EU we need a lower cost system. Otherwise, we will not be able to compete in what is going to be a competitive market place with or without financial support – more likely, without!

A good start in wakening our country up to what can be done in marketing beef would be a joint sponsored effort by SAMW and QMS inviting Cara Lee from the American Angus Association to give a series of presentations across Scotland over a 10-day period this back-end to tell them how to increase beef sales as they have done in USA.

We are at the time of year again when I get really annoyed at our gold plating of EU regulations regarding hedge cutting! If I was in Ireland, I could start trimming these overgrown hedges that cause many near accidents on our narrow country roads, on August 1.

Historically, we used to start in July to tidy up hedgerows so that drivers could see round corners at T-junctions and crossroads. Now, cars, trucks and tractor cabs all get scratched with over-grown hedges, all because some crazy bunch of so-called environmentalists think that wild birds are still nesting.

What absolute nonsense! So, come on, CabSec, Fergus Ewing, follow Ireland and let us tidy up the countryside when it should be done and, if you want to follow another Irish plan that we envy, adopt their computer programme that allows them to start paying out next year’s BPS on the first of October.

Finally, one other Irish statistic that should give cause for concern – not only in the beef sector but dairy as well. Some 70,000 more calves have been born in Ireland in the first six months of 2016 than there was in 2015 – somebody’s gearing up for expansion!