HOW concerned should we be about Scottish farming? Bank borrowing is up 8% year on year and its asset value is diminishing. The percentage of the retail value of the food that farmers produce is continuously in decline and that does not bode well for the future of the industry.

That is not taking into account, the increased level of debt to supply merchants and farm contractors, compounded by a reduced BPS. The reality is: farming is not in good shape and what is more disturbing is, that the outlook going forward does not have much light at the end of what looks like a tough road ahead.

Tractor and machinery sales are in steep decline as is investment in any farm expansion programmes. As one very large farmer said to me the other day: "It is time for holding one's nerve, paying your bills and hanging on in the hope that things improve and we can return to enjoying the job of farming again."

As everyone in farming knows, it is a long term game that spans usually many generations and, as in the past, there have been many ups and downs, with most farming families living to tell the tale.

As I have said many times, if you are in farming to make a fortune you better look for a career change, but it is a lifestyle that is different from most others and one that the majority of us enjoy.

Fortunately there are glimmers of hope on the horizon. One is the drop in the value of sterling with the pound now worth some 15% less than it was a few months ago.

That benefit should continue to flow through to farm-gate level. There is no doubt that some costs will rise but, on balance, we should be better off

Historically, when the pound was at its present level we primary producers did benefit Let us hope that we do so again.

The big unknown is Brexit and that, unfortunately, is not going to be resolved soon.

In fact, it is going to drag on for years but at least the start of going through that exit door is March next year. My big fear is that farming and food production will not feature very high on the agenda, but already we see a host of countries lining up for the day they can again pour their agricultural produce back into the UK.

I can well recall my visit to Australia, to judge Adelaide Royal Show, just after we joined the EU, when the Aussies showed their disappointment about the UK joining the EUClub and felt we were abandoning the Commonwealth, and it did not go unmentioned!

So who is first to knock on Westminster's door with their lamb and other exports, followed no doubt by Brazil, the Argentine, USA and Canada all waiting in the wings.

It is no secret that the country just across that short stretch of water called the Irish Sea, is all geared up to pour its produce into UK. Ireland's farmers have a government that leaves no stone unturned in order to help its farmers to export whatever they produce.

At the moment there is one trucking firm that sends 14 trucks per day across that Irish sea with produce to our shores. I wonder by how much that will increase after Brexit?

I think there is a real concern regarding Scotland's beef industry. The other day an Irish farming paper quoted the difference between what the Irish farmer was receiving for a 350Kg carcase, compared to his Scottish counterpart, which was 280 euros less. What the article forgot to mention was the fact that the Irish farmer received a three times larger BPS payment than his Scottish equivalent, and that Ireland started paying out their BPS on the 10th October!

To continue on the beef theme allow me to repeat the last article I wrote about our trip to Kansas: "So, to sum up - what did we learn?

"By far the majority of the cows were black, weighing no more than 500 to 600Kgs. They were out of doors from the day they were born. I do not think our experts in the company saw any of our equivalent U-Grades! Americans just do not want cattle with big back sides and there is certainly no place for tight ribbed cattle or extreme shapes. Calving ease, good feet and locomotion are paramount. Portion size at the cutting plant is of the utmost importance.

The beef on the super-market shelves certainly has much more intramuscular fat than we see here in GB. Cross bred bulls play a much greater part in their breeding programmes, as does their carcase grading system, with much more emphasis on back fat, rib-eye size and marbling.

If we in this country continue down this lean tasteless beef journey then, when the door opens to both south and north American beef, we can say goodbye to Scotch Beef.

At least this summing up certainly caused much food for thought. My colleague, John Elliot gave an excellent account of his experience, which upset a few readers, none more so than John Gilmour, who, in his last letter of September 17, said in a few words, what we are all crying out for: select cattle on their fat cover and marbling as his father William did, with the frame carrying a depth of flesh.

Even the 'Disgruntled Drover' summed up what we are all saying, on both August 27, and October 8 very aptly.

Sadly, there is no indication yet from SAMW, QMS or NFUS. that plans are being put in place to scrap EUROP system.

I mentioned before that Fergus Ewing does not need to spend vast sums of cash to bring in a system of grading that recognises quality which is already working in several countries World Wide.

As the Drover stated, time is not on our side and already the aforementioned countries are geared up to export into this country as soon as the UK Government says lets have cheap food from anywhere in the World!

Right now, there is a small amount of 55 day aged corn fed Australian beef on a menu in a Glasgow restaurant and it is excellent! John Gilmour is correct when he says producing top quality Scotch Beef is not rocket science.

What we need is the tools in place to recognise that quality before it is too late, because if we do not, Scotch beef will no longer command any kind of premium anywhere in the World.

A little good news from West Central Scotland – after the third. wettest September in 30 years (at almost 5 inches) – as I put pen to paper, for the first time this year we have passed 10 days together with no rain and still counting. Despite that, we housed the last of the beef cattle on September 20, with the sheep left to enjoy the lush back-end grass.

Unfortunately, politics are never far away from news bulletins or table discussion. Across the pond there is certainly plenty of mud being slung from both sides in what has become a very dirty affair.

I do admire some of Donald Trump's traits and some aspects of his ability to never give up and bounce back from what looks like the impossible! I am afraid if I was a betting man, my money would be on the lady to become the U.S. first female President.

Hilary would seem to be the safest pair of hands with the most diplomatic experience. The same could be said about our own Prime Minister as we face some difficult decisions ahead.

Fortunately, she has some luck on her side in the reality that there is no opposition in place with a shred of respect. Jeremy Corbyn, as the opposition leader, must be the best news any Prime Minister could have!! What is more important is, how good is the DEFRA team set up by Theresa May ?

I am afraid I do not have much faith in their ability but I will live in hope that I am proved wrong?

It appears that we have passed the peak in prime beef values as the price has dropped back between 5 and 10 pence per kilo, which certainly is not good news for finishers.

Just when we were hoping for an end to volatility we are back at it again which means that the nervousness following the last three years, when lots of money was lost in the early months of the year, is returning!

It was largely caused by a surplus of Irish beef and a strong pound, which is not the case this time.

Unfortunately, it is not difficult to influence the market - drop the price and the plants get flooded with cattle! Hopefully this flush will be short lived and stability will resume.

The announcement that the North-east's biggest plant is introducing a 400kg. weight limit on January 1 will certainly have an effect of the volume of beef coming out of that area.