Goodbye to the uncertainties of 2016!

2016 will be remembered for tight margins, reduced investments, and let us wait and see what the ramifications of the referendum to leave the EU has for farming. I get the feeling from my peers that, as we leave 2016, we are a long way from knowing what the political decisions from around the world are going to have on tiny wee Scotland's agriculture. Unfortunately, we farm in one of the world's highest cost environments, compounded by the fact that we appear to be one of the most regulated countries in the world.

I cannot leave 2016 without congratulating the Scottish National Fatstock Club on their triple events. Firstly, the live judging at the Caledonian Market which was very ably judged by Jamie Scott. He clearly demonstrated that the days of the extreme shaped beef cattle are coming to an end! Not being a sheepie man I am reliably informed that Malcolm Stewart did an equally good job with the live sheep where he selected for the needs of the market. The second of those triple events was the carcase judging which was held at Scot Beef. For the first time, as a result of the weight limits, we saw some lean carcase sides, which in my opinion, are going to result in some pretty tasteless beef! Having said that, it is still a great event when beef and sheep producers can see their produce hanging up before going on to the final consumer. Of particular note this year was the large turn-out of the next generation, which was very encouraging. The Scot Beef team and Marks and Spencer certainly go the extra mile in displaying their wares, and also appreciate the help their farmers give in supplying the cattle and sheep. The third event was" Live Scot", at Lanark Market which is now proving to be the perfect venue in every way and is able to accommodate so many sectors. Particularly poignant this year was the re-introduction of the dairy classes. I said re-introduction because I can well remember the first Holstein club show in the old market way back in the early 1970's. Poultry have also been introduced, for the ftrst time, and a baking and handcraft, section and crop area are also supported. The organisers are also very fortunate to have "Country Refreshments" with Gilbert Thomson and his team who do a first class job at catering. So it appears that the S.N.F.C. have a secure future in a location for "Live Scot", though no doubt there will be some changes with time, the shape of the cattle for one, but that will take some 5 to 10 years, who knows! It wilr be the 25th Live Carcase Show next year at Bridge of Allen. Maybe it should be named the lan Galloway Event in honour of the enterprising man who started it, all these years ago. Regulations -when are they going to stop? My colleague Jim Walker very ably covered the linked farms fiasco a few weeks ago with the question being asked many a time since-Was the N.F.U.S. asleep on the job on this issue??? No sooner had that pile of extra recording taken place and in comes another pile of papers with a raft of questions on shooting. I can tell you it almost went in the bin and then I had second thoughts. A good answer to every question would be non-applicable. I am awaiting the response! Historically I used to blame Brussels and then Westminster for "red tape", but is looks as if the blame lies at Holyrood. So much for Brian Pack's Big Bonfire!! Every morning while on a tractor feeding cattle I listen to the money programme from London which is on before B.B.C Scotland starts. The presenter was Louise Cooper who was on about food inflation which is predicted to rise significantly next year and is likely to upset the Bank of England's inflation predictions. She rattled out a whole raft of statistics, one being that the amount of food we farmers produce in the U.K. was in continual decline, resulting in higher imports from around the World. The reason for the food inflation costs was because ofthe drop in the value of the pound. It seems that we import over 40% of our food with that figure continually increasing and likely to become close to 50% within the next 10 years. So, why can our farmers not produce more food. There is a simple answer. U,K, farmers have to comply to much more strict regulations and rules. Hence the reason why, up until now, it has been much cheaper to import such a high level of the food the U.K. requires. So, what is the chance ofthat changing once we are outside the E.U.? I would say very slim and for 3 reasons -one.-housing. 2. bedding. 3. regulations. Almost every country that is gearing up to export to the U.K. does not have any of the 3 aforementioned costs, so even if the pound remains at its current level, relative to the U.S. dollar, the imports are going to continue flowing into our food chain. In fact, I am convinced imports will increase at a much greater rate than is currently taking place. Another disappointing statistics on which to end 2016 is the number of employed and self-employed people in our industry which is at the lowest level ever recorded. I do not suppose this should be a surprise, given the number of farms that have been taken out of production over the years to build houses and industrial units, plus the merger of many other farms into bigger units in order to become hopefully, much more efficient. Machinery today is not only much larger but can do many jobs that were historically done by humans and I am afraid that trend will continue unabated. As we head up to this holiday period, which does not apply to everyone, least of all livestock farmers, I thought, due to all this talk about Brexit and the expected exit from the E.U., I could put another question to my fellow beef farmers and a few figures over which to ponder at Christmas lunch. I have been catching up with some of my many contacts around the World to find out how the prime beef prices compare with us here in Scotland, which, this week, is on average at 365p/kg., England-355p/kg., N. Ireland-350P/kg. and Ireland 327.p/kg.

In all four countries there are significant variations to these averages. For Example, if you had a decker load of top class cattle in the South of #England, you could be receiving 10 to 15p/kg above the average and it is pretty much the same elsewhere. The other significant difference is weight limits in Scotland -400 to 420kg. is now the norm, whereas, in England you can get paid full weight anywhere from 450 to 500kg., which does make a big difference in margins. Elsewhere in the World where carcase weights are generally much lighter, farmer returns are much lower but you have to take into account some have n o housing, bedding or regulations costs, so here are a few examples -Uruguay 231p/kg., Brazil -216p/kg., Australia -316, Canada -305, U.S.A-300, Italy -327., Poland -263. That is a flavour of the values around the World from several countries who are just waiting on the doors opening to allow them to export in to the U.K.

Finally, on a lighter note, I really only have one hobby and that is watching sport on T.V. because farming is not only my business, it can also be, most of the time, my hobby .. However, I did enjoy last weekend watching the B. B.C. sports personality of the Year, seeing all the many records being broken by our dedicated sports people, and none more so than our own Andy Murray from Dunblane. As well as being No.1 tennis player in the World, I doubt if his achievement of winning the Sports Personality of the year three times will ever be broken. He will undoubtedly go into the history books as one of Scotland's greatest sportsmen and in 100 years he will be a legend. Now I will try not to eat too much as we have several clan gatherings in the next few days, so let us hope 2017 brings more good news than bad. Cheers!