THIS IS usually the month I look into my crystal ball to see if I can find what might happen in the year ahead.

This time there are only four words which spring to mind – Trump, Brexit, uncertainty, volatility. Not a lot of farming future comes from these four words, but let us try to find some good in them.

For many years this column has been critical of what I call professional politicians – people who got to university, gain a political degree that gives them the qualifications to be a politician, especially if they can communicate, but have absolutely no business knowledge whatsoever.

They then try to tell we business people how to turn the wheels of our country. Donald J Trump sure turns that kind of thinking upside down.

Here we have a successful businessman, not only in the US but also here in Scotland, where he has two substantial investments.

He has entered the White House with a completely different approach from his predecessors, with the exception of Ronald Reagan, who was an actor.

President Trump has already got the establishment and civil servants running around like headless chickens because they have absolutely no experience of dealing with a powerful businessman who just does not accept established political protocol.

There is no doubt he is going to shake up the US establishment and will likely ruffle a few feathers along the way, but then that might not be the worst thing in the world to happen to civil servants who think their role in society is untouchable.

We are told he does not have much knowledge about agriculture, but those of us who were in Kansas back in June know he has already a very good farm adviser, so I don’t think US farmers have much to worry about.

I wish I could say the same about Brexit.

It is six months since the vote to leave the EU occurred and the politicians at Westminster are, like the civil servants in the US, running around like headless chickens.

Even Theresa May’s speech the other day, stating that we would leave the single market, did not make the future any clearer as to what would replace it.

The one and only hope for farming is that sterling continues to weaken, which then means that goods will be expensive to import.

The downside to that is that food inflation can only go in one direction and that will not please politicians who are trying to keep inflation under control.

On top of that, there is a whole raft of other scenarios which could take place. For example, will there still be an EU as we currently know it by the time we leave?

How is the Irish situation going to end up, both in the north and the south. I had an Irishman here the other day saying that the best thing Ireland could do would be to leave the EU at the same time as the UK.

What is Nicola going to tell us at the NFUS agm, in Glasgow, in a few days’ time? Is she going to find some way of bringing back the rural voters who have moved away since she took over as First Minister from Alex Salmond, who had loyal rural support?

Her escape route of not having a second referendum if Theresa May went for a soft Brexit seems to have gone.

Without rural support at a second referendum, she has absolutely no chance of winning, so it appears the Prime Minister has the Scots lass back in a corner again!

You have to remember she is a fighter and maybe she will tell all the farmers in Glasgow how the SNP government is going to retain the BPS, stop slipper farmers, retain cows and ewes on the hills and reduce the power of the do-good brigade who wish to turn Scotland into a wold life park!

The day before, Fergus Ewing is going to tell the hundreds of new young entrants he is going to have hundreds of starter farms for them. He is still dreaming yet as to how he is going to do it, but then people have to dream!

It is when one wakes up, reality usually kicks in!

I read a report about the Semex UK conference with regard to farm minister, George Eustice, and I quote: “As far as the dairy sector was concerned, he backed the formation of more producer organisations to strengthen producers position in the supply chain, and said that the government may look at grant aid to support their development.”

Now, I wonder how many times Maggie Thatcher turned in her grave after hearing a Tory minister make that commitment. It reminded me of a lesson I learned a long time ago – never trust a politician!

Uncertainty! I used to say there were only two things certain in life! The first was when the SMMB was in existence and the milk cheque arrived. The second was death!

The first I always looked forward to, that visit from the wee red van that came up the road end six days a week – because it paid the bills. I am not looking forward to the latter certainty!

Farming, I suppose, has always been surrounded by uncertainty. The weather for one because in Scotland it plays such a large part of whether or not we have a good or a bad year.

Scottish farming relies so much on our livestock sector, so the health of every form of stock we look after is crucial for our survival. The same applies to the crops we grow as they need to be free from disease, and gathered in good condition to produce good results.

Politics always cause uncertainties, but for the most part, the challenge they cause usually makes farming interesting!

Volatility – is a relatively new phenomenon that has crept in over the past 10 years. Way back when I started doing budgets 60 plus years ago, I could, for more years than I can remember, get the figures to come close to what I either predicted or expected.

I am afraid that has not been the case in recent years. Never more has it been the case that we have to base ones figures over several years and then live in hope!

Volatility is now prevalent in virtually every sector and, unfortunately, appears to become much more so, as we head towards all the changes that are about to take place in the farming industry.

Now, I have some statistics which may either be good or bad, regarding average rainfall, and it is in old fashioned figures, so you young whizz kids will have to convert!

Our 30-year average is 38 inches, 2015 was 46.5 inches, 2016 was 36 inches, Oct, Nov, and Dec, for 2015 was 17.25 inches, while Oct, Nov, and Dec, for 2016 was 6 inches.

We are now mid-way through January, 2017 and there is only 2.5 inches in the rain gauge! I hope I am wrong, but with such a low winter’s rainfall, there must be bad news to come and it looks as if it will come at the wrong time, which means that the chances of a dry spring do not look too good.

Sorry for my pessimism!