By Jim Brown

We have had all the political leaders, both north and south of the Border, extol the future from the podiums of both NFUS and NFU England’s agms and after all the discussions, they have told the farming industry nothing that will give any confidence as to what the future will be like after our divorce from the EU.

The country that is most likely to be affected by the UK divorce from the EU is Ireland, as Dublin-based Teagasc forecast last week that they were expecting a 10% drop in BSP payment, plus a 20% drop in commodity prices.

Ireland’s farm minister, Michael Creed, also said that he does not expect to see any meaningful discussions taking place until the back-end of 2017, because of the forthcoming elections in France, Holland, and Germany.

In Northern Ireland, ex chief executive of Dale Farm Foods, Dr David Dobbin, questioned whether direct payments to European farmers will last much beyond 2020.

Let me remind readers that the Irish – and I mean both north and south – currently receive BPS payments three times larger than we receive on a comparable farm size in Scotland.

Dublin will have to have a significant influence in this divorce with the UK as more than 50% of produce which comes off Irish farms is exported to the UK.

That means that any unsatisfactory deal for them will have a dramatic effect on the Irish economy because agriculture is such a large part of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

So, where does this divorce leave Scotland? Let us take a look at Scottish agriculture’s largest sector, beef, which is more than 50% of our output.

My view is that its future is in the hands of one body, or organisation and that is the Scottish Association of Meat Wholesalers (SAMW).

The NFUS, QMS, and the lesser-known Scottish Beef Association (SBA) will have little or no influence on the future of this sector, which is all in the hands of SAMW. They need to come up with how they see a future plan for the beef sector after the divorce.

My research tells me that the two main reasons why suckler cows are going off farms is that many of the next generation do not want the hassle and stress of calving cows for the small margins that are received.

Now, I do not have much experience of calving beef cows, as we only had a small herd of Simmentals years ago, but I have more than 60 years experience of calving thousands of dairy cows (when around 80% chose to calve through the night).

That was helped 40 years ago by installing a camera in the calving pen with the monitor at our bedside.

The message I have been hearing from several young beef farmers recently is that if you want a live calf you have nearly to sleep beside them and no sooner have you brought the calf home, you have to take care that the mother does not try to kill you.

This always reminds me of the conversation I had in Alberta with a young lady rancher who had 500 suckler cows. Her only help on the farm were her two horses and when I asked her how many cows she had to assist at calving she said two.

She duly told me that she tied the calves' legs to the saddle of her horse to pull the calf out.

Now is there a message there about the kind of cows we keep in this country, or is there someone in Scotland with 500 cows and only need to assist two?

This begs the question, what is driving the resurgence in our native breeds, particularly Angus and Shorthorn, but with greater interest in the others as well. Is it for docility, calving ease, easier kept cows, or the market’s desire for smaller carcases?

SAMW needs to come out loud and clear with what it wants from beef producers if it is to keep the present number of abattoirs operating in five to 10 years time.

Only the other day I had a chat to a major supermarket meat buyer who was absolutely clear that if the Scottish beef industry is to compete with the rest of the world, then we need to change from the current system of how we recognise 'quality'. The current system only recognises shape and takes no account of flavour, taste or eating experience.

He concluded by saying 'look how far ahead Australia, America and Canada are at achieving their goals'.

So, SAMW, I am laying the challenge at your door. Are you going to put your head above the parapet and tell this Scottish beef sector how you see the way ahead after this divorce or are you going to say it has 'aye been this way for the past 40 years and we do not need to change the EUROP system'?.

Let us stick with beef for a moment and touch on its promotional body, QMS. I am sad to see Uel Morton depart from his chief executive role.

Despite all the flak thrown at him, he has done an excellent job at QMS. He has carried out the role and direction his board gave him with unstinting loyalty to the cause of our beef, lamb, and pork.

I know there are many levy payers out there who would question some of the board’s direction, but do not shoot the messenger. Over the years, Uel and I have had many discussions, sometimes with different views, which was what I liked about him and I would like to thank him for those occasions.

Who will be his successor? There were 26 farmers with whom I went to Kansas last June where we heard a lass who had a large part to play in increasing beef sales by more than 8% over the past five years.

Her name is Cara Lee. She gave us a stunning presentation on how to market beef. I am sure my fellow travellers would agree with me in asking the QMS board to be brave or bold enough to look outside the box.

All my life the businesses that are most successful are led by the best people one can find.

Now to a little good news. My dairy farming friends are at long last enjoying a little more pleasure from milking cows.

At nearly 30p a litre it is surely much better that 12 or 15p just a few months ago. Mind you it is going to take a long time at the upper 20s to recover the vast losses of the past.

It appears that milk buyers are attempting to reduce the discrimination between those on supermarket contracts and the unfortunate ones who are not, which is, to say the least, a disgraceful anomaly.

Another change to the dairy sector is the decision being made around many kitchen tables – if the next generation is going to continue milking cows, how are they going to do it?

The majority of the answers are by robots. When I first watched robots working in Germany some 40 years ago, I never envisaged seeing so many being installed in the UK, and also leading to even higher yielding herds.

We were honoured to be among a handful of friends to join four generations of the Brewster family to celebrate Jack’s 90th birthday at the appropriately named Boclair House Hotel.

Both Jack and Marion were in good spirits, both giving excellent speeches, and Jack speaking off the cuff, showing a memory that is as good as any computer. Jack’s father and my great uncle Bob were the best of pals, when it was all hand milking.

As one would expect, with robots now working at Boclair, Jack was bang up to date on how much milk they were producing!