IF THE UK ultimately votes for Brexit - departure from the EU - one of the big changes for agriculture will be the loss of a link to the lobbying might of the pro-farming, pro-CAP member states.

When it comes to pressing the case for agriculture, they do not come better than France. This week it led a charge in the farm council to convince the farm commissioner, Phil Hogan, to finally admit there was a crisis in agriculture - and that sympathy alone for the plight farmers find themselves in was not going to solve the problem.

While it is up to the 'yes' advocates to make their case to farmers, it is interesting the UK was absent from the list of member states the French farm minister, Stephane le Foll, said were supporting him. If the 'no' camp are to persuade farmers their future would be safeguarded outside the EU, they need to show how they would change the mindset at Westminster.

In the past the Conservatives were seen as a traditional ally of farming, but that is no longer the case. With the Treasury dominating decision making, the default stance is to oppose support. If the 'no' camp are to win farmers' support they will have to explain how this would change outside the EU.

As to the French case this week, the government in Paris was under pressure to act. Farmers have been blocking roads, which is far from a new tactic, but next week sees the start of the big agriculture show in Paris. Le Foll wants to be able to say at that event that he has taken farmer concerns on board, is assembling EU-wide support and had forced the European Commission to acknowledge the crisis. That was achieved this week - although it will be mid-March before we see how promises are turned into action.

On board France has an impressive line up of large and small member states, but at this stage not Germany. That is because Germany does not fully buy into French demands on supply management controls, although it wants action because of the scale of the crisis.

It is however a certain bet that by the time this issue returns to the farm council next month, France and Germany, as the traditional drivers of policy, will have a common position. At issue is that France wants a return of some form of supply management controls - effectively back door quotas - for the dairy sector. This is not deliverable - and the French probably know that - but it is playing a long game. It has successfully forced onto the agenda the term 'agriculture market crisis'.

This means the focus is not only on dairy and pigmeat, but on the wider problems of farming. Crucially, it has won an acceptance from Hogan that action is needed - and from the Dutch EU presidency that this will dominate the March farm council.

Hogan has said he is prepared to act, and is 'not happy' with the situation farmers are in. He has set the constraints for what is possible. These are that thinking must be innovative, within the limits of a tight CAP budget, legal under EU rules and capable of securing majority support in the farm council. The legality issue effectively blocks a return of supply management, although there will be an increase in private storage aid for the dairy and pig sectors.

On the budget, one of the big questions is whether there is a case for beginning to use the 2016 crisis reserve in the CAP, although Hogan says this would only be recycling farmers' own money since the reserve is deducted from direct payments.

The radical idea that could come in is some form of export credit scheme to encourage exports. This would reduce some of the risk and speed up payments for commercial traders, with the hope that this would help tackle some of the surpluses that are dragging down prices, thanks mainly to the loss of the Russian market.

This would be no overnight solution, but given the depth of the crisis there are no magic bullet ideas around. There is not enough money to buy the industry's way out of the crisis, but at least France has moved Hogan from denying there was a dairy crisis, to him and others accepting the farming industry across all 28 member states is in a market driven crisis.