WHEN IT comes to progress in the European Union, it often seems case of one step forward, two steps backwards.

At the farm council this week there was much talk about simplification of the CAP, which the farm commissioner, Phil Hogan, sees as one of the big things he wants to deliver. He is backed in this drive by the European Commission president, Jean Claude Juncker. But their vision of a simplified CAP is far from what farmers want – and it will certainly not leave many who voted for Brexit doubting their determination to escape red tape.

There is a focus in Brussels on what will replace the CAP after 2020. This will feature in the mid-term review next year, but it will be of only academic interest to the UK, since by then Brexit will have happened. Farmers in Scotland are more interested in change now, and that is the painfully slow process it has always been. One of the biggest frustrations is greening, and it is beginning to look, more and more, that farmers were sold a pup when they were promised simplification.

If reports are right, greening rules could be tightened rather than relaxed. That may be a harsh view of what Hogan is planning, but gains could be offset by a cave-in to the green lobby. This will see all pesticides banned on ecological focus areas. Despite opposition from farm lobby groups, Hogan confirmed this week he was pressing ahead with this plan.

He did however hint that the mid-term review could bring more flexibility over the definition of an active farmer. This may be a good or bad thing, but since we are at the end of our time with the CAP, any change is more likely to cause confusion than ease problems. The same will apply to other things that happen through simplification. It is clear at farm councils now that the UK government has already distanced itself from the debate, so what we get will have been pushed for by others.

Everything now seems to be set in a Brexit context. That is understandable in the UK, where it will be the biggest political event in a generation. However in Brussels it is happening too. The trade discussions with the Mercosur countries of South America, including Argentina and Brazil, are under way again and some are suggesting a deal could be easier without the UK.

This is a bizarre thing to say, since in an EU context the UK has always been one of the liberal anti-protectionism countries when it comes to trade. It is countries like France, protecting their farmers, that have slowed down trade negotiations, and it seems strange that the EU's main trade negotiator should think otherwise.

Talk to some of the wiser heads in Brussels and they recognise that the departure of the UK from the EU will be a negative. For years the UK was a voice between the big power blocs of France and Germany; it brought diplomacy and a global view to proceedings. Ironically, given what is being said now about leaving the Single Market, the UK was the driver of its creation and one of its biggest defenders.

The UK also helped ease the path into the EU for many of the former communist countries from the east. Its contribution has been far in excess of the billions it contributes to the EU budget. That needs to be recognised more widely by other member states before the exit negotiations, and the debate on access to the Single Market, move into top gear.

Trade is probably one of the issues where UK agriculture is facing a very different future. The protection of agriculture in trade negotiations, delivered by countries like France and Ireland, will be a big loss to farmers here. It was always a protection against opening up European markets to food imports.

The approach of the UK is likely to be the exact opposite. Its default position will be free trade, and it will see food imports as a way to drive down prices to the benefit of consumers, while at the same time forcing farmers to be more competitive. This is why those suggesting the loss of the UK will make trade deals easier are so wrong.

But that argument is irrelevant now when set against the threat posed by a pro-Brexit trade minister determined to be seen to land high profile trade deals for the UK at any cost.