THE AGRI-MARKETS task force, set up by farm commissioner Phil Hogan to look at the fairness or otherwise of the food supply chain, completed its deliberations this week.

Its report will go formally to Hogan next week, and the following week he will seek the views of the farm council on its findings. Beyond that, the big question is whether the European Commission will act, and if so, whether new regulations will be in place before Brexit.

This report has long been a cause close to the commissioner's heart. He first raised the issue of fair treatment of farmers when he was first appointed to the job, and came to Dublin to speak to the Irish Farmers Association. He questioned the fairness of the fertiliser market, but market forces and a rigorous defence of their position by the companies involved has seen that slip off the agenda in Brussels. As far as food is concerned, the central issue is whether the major supermarkets exploit their awesome control of consumer spending to the disadvantage of the weakest players in the food chain – farmers.

The EU competition commissioner lacked Hogan's enthusiasm for a full investigation, and this is why he decided to set up an expert group. This was under the chairmanship of a former Dutch farm minister, Cees Veerman, and included some heavy hitters from the industry. It had its time to draw conclusions extended in the summer, but has now agreed its final report. The contents will no doubt leak out over the next week or so, but regardless of the contents, the key issue is whether the commitment exists in Brussels to take any recommendations forward.

The report is likely to encourage the creation of more powerful producer organisations, to improve farmers' muscle in negotiations. This may require changes to national competition rules, although it may be possible to do this within existing legislation.

The big question is whether the report will call for new controls on supermarkets. This would be a massive step for the Commission, since it could see the creation of a Europe-wide equivalent to the UK Grocery Code Adjudicator. This is one area where the UK has led the rest of Europe.

But any attempts to introduce legislation in Brussels will face an intense lobbying campaign by supermarkets and the bigger food processors. Their argument will be that this is about driving up prices for consumers. They will quietly ignore the reality that it is more about consumers paying the same price but with margins spread more evenly.

Hogan has the support of the European Commission president, Jean Claude Juncker, to bring forward proposals in 2017 to create a fairer food chain. This is on the basis that it could help drive economic growth in rural areas. The other side of that coin is that the financial fortunes of the major supermarkets have slipped badly since this debate began.

In the UK in particular, but also in Europe, the activities of the deep discounters, such as Aldi and Lidl, have slashed profitability for the major retailers. They can, with some justification, use this to claim that they too are victims of an intensely competitive food chain – and they will argue it does not need further regulation. Their trump card will always be that they are delivering ever cheaper food for consumers, and that is a powerful argument with politicians.

On that basis, it will be interesting to see how farm ministers react to the report. They may well pay lip service to the concerns of farmers about fairness and farm gate prices. But they will be mindful that the majority who vote them into office are more interested in cheap food on supermarket shelves than the interests of farmers. That is the harsh reality of politics.

What may happen later this month is a classic kicking for touch, with a suggestion that the Commission should come forwards with a plan in early 2017. As to the UK and Brexit, this is one area where what happens in the rest of the EU is not particularly relevant. The Grocery Code Adjudicator is already more powerful than anything Brussels is likely to propose.

While new legislation on the supply chain could affect the EU Single Market, there is a bigger question mark by the day as to whether or not the UK will be part of a customs union to secure access to that market after Brexit.