IN SCOTLAND and the rest of the UK, the general election result was a shock. It confirmed that opinion polls are largely worthless.

Then the shocks continued, with Michael Gove now in charge at Defra. His return to the cabinet less than a year after standing for the Tory leadership, and stabbing Boris Johnson in the back in that campaign, was a surprise – and it is still hard to work out whether it is good or bad news for the farming industry.

The previous minister, Andrea Leadsom, will not be missed by the farming lobby. She failed to engage with farmers and left with no vision in place of a future for UK or regional agricultural policy. Her term of office was a wasted opportunity to begin getting a new policy in place for when we leave the EU and the CAP.

With a year gone, that task needs to become a priority. In his initial interviews after being appointed, the new minister accepted that he needed to come up with a replacement for the CAP that would safeguard the environment and deliver quality food. So far, so good – and on his first full day he was due to meet leaders of the NFU.

This suggests he is in listening mode, but whether he really is listening will be tested. This is the paradox of Michael Gove. He was born in Edinburgh, but adopted by parents from Aberdeen. It was a Labour supporting family, and he followed them by joining the party, but switched to being a Conservative by the time he went to university.

He has firm and trenchant views, and when he was education minister, teachers would say he listened but failed to hear what they and other experts were saying. Instead he sought to single-handedly change education, largely unsuccessfully. He may have learned lessons about having fixed opinions on things he does not fully understand, but that is doubtful. He has a steep learning curve ahead of him at Defra, but he is clever, articulate and has an enviable capacity to take in information.

What we know for certain is that present CAP arrangements will continue until 2020, assuming we leave the EU in 2019. That is a bigger assumption than before the election, but whatever happens, direct payments are in place until then.

Gove has also confirmed the Conservative manifesto commitment to maintain the same level of aid for the term of this parliament. That should be until 2022, but that is less certain than before Theresa May lost her majority. The challenge is not only to come up with a new agricultural policy, but to come up with one that will stand, even if there is another election and change of government at Westminster.

One positive factor strengthening farmers' hand is that Scotland and Northern Ireland, as still rural economies, have had their strength boosted. The Scottish Conservatives cannot be ignored, and many represent areas where farming is important. Equally the DUP in Ulster have always been a party close to farmers, so their influence at Westminster can fit with that of the Scottish Conservatives when it comes to agriculture.

Also positive is that with Gove, the farming lobby is effectively starting with a clean sheet. He is a man who likes new thinking, and farmers have an opportunity to shape that thinking. The fact that his appointment has not gone down well with green activist groups – as opposed to the more mainstream conservationist organisations – is also positive for agriculture. He will want to make his mark on agriculture and the environment, and the farming lobby can help him do so.

Gove is a nakedly ambitious politician and will see the Defra post as a stepping stone. Despite what he says, he still believes he can lead the Conservatives. As a former journalist he courts the media. But the involvement that will bring in the national debate will divert his attention from more mundane matters like an agricultural policy.

He has no farming knowledge or experience, representing a prosperous urban constituency in the south of England. Also to be tested is whether he will accept the need for agriculture to have access to the EU-27 single market, or whether political ideology will overcome economic logic.

A Chinese curse is to condemn someone to 'live in interesting times' and that is certainly a fate that has befallen farmers. Whether it is a curse or a blessing is yet to be tested.