IF FORECASTS are accurate, and they probably are, the European Commission is about to fudge the glyphosate issue to buy member state support.

It has already reduced from 15 to ten years its proposed re-licensing period, and now it is set to reduce this to just five years. There is no reason, other than a political fudge, for doing so, but fudges are part of the political DNA of the EU.

By backing down to secure a deal, the European Commission is again distancing itself from decisions based on rigorous science. This will convince many farmers they were right to vote for Brexit, while leaving many green advocates even more concerned about a move away from the precautionary principle so beloved in Brussels.

If this proves to be the case, it would mean that very soon after the post-Brexit transitional period, suggested by Theresa May, the UK will have to confront this issue again. That would be a big test of whether Brexit really will make any difference. If it does, the UK can make its own decision, based on best science, and ignore what is happening in what will then be the EU-27. That could, however, be a prime example of hope over expectation.

There is already pressure for the UK, so far as environmental regulations are concerned, to adopt the approach of the European Free Trade Area countries. They effectively implement whatever regulations are in force in the EU. This is a part of the deal that allows them access to the EU market under a customs union deal.

However the government at Westminster has said it does not want to be part of a customs union or to follow the EFTA arrangements. If, despite that, it accepts parallel environmental regulations people will rightly ask what was the point of leaving the EU to have the same rules, but without the power to influence them?

It is tempting to see glyphosate as an issue that will be settled via another EU fudge. However the farming lobby needs to take on board one of the drivers for Brussels running up the white flag. This was the European Citizens Initiative (ECI) calling for a ban. ECIs are part of the Lisbon Treaty and the glyphosate document was the quickest ever to collect the million signatures needed. This should be sending alarm bells ringing with the farm lobby, since the group behind it have their sights set on a wider protest against all pesticides used in Europe.

They are pressing for tough action against potential endocrine disruptors, as part of a wider drive to phase out all but the most essential pesticides. By conceding a reduction in the licensing period for glyphosate the Commission has blinked in the argument that science should be the basis for decisions. It is now on a slippery slope to further pressure for bans.

This is the price Brussels will pay for failing to stand up for science over glyphosate. Its fudge, like all sweet things, will give a short term boost. But just like sugar leads to obesity and diabetes, this is a concession with bad long term consequences for agriculture.

That, in no small measure, is because it will make EU agriculture less competitive. This is an opportunity for the UK to go down a different road, by committing to a technically driven, globally competitive industry. That might close us out of some markets in the EU-27, but eventually the government will have to tell us whether agriculture will strike out on its own, or will face a future neither in or out of EU regulations.

A more immediate problem for the European Commission is what to do with its close to 400,000 tonnes stockpile of skim milk powder. This was bought into intervention during the dairy crisis and selling it without collapsing the market has proved impossible. Now the SMP market is falling and is out of alignment with butter and cheese, forcing the Commission into a change of approach.

At the World Dairy Summit in Belfast, the farm commissioner, Phil Hogan, confirmed that from next year the ceiling for intervention buying will be set at zero. A tender system will decide what will be bought in and the price. This should add more discipline to a market now in a post-milk quotas phase. But it suggests farmers will be much more exposed when the next slump in milk prices comes around.