FOLLOWING the Brexit decision we really are in uncharted waters for the entire economy – not least in Scotland, which was more pro-EU than any other UK region.

If straw polls were right about farmer opinion, a majority will be welcoming the referendum outcome – although some may be pondering the old adage of being careful what you wish for, as we face years of uncertainty about the CAP and replacement support measures from Westminster.

What is clear now is that for agriculture and, indeed, the rest of the economy, the Leave advocates had neither a plan A or B, suggesting they did not really expect to win.

It was suggested last week that a Leave decision could see the name of this column changed from Euro Note to Euro Not Book – but it will be years before farming finds itself in that position.

The timetable is unclear, but the future of the CAP is no longer of any real interest to the UK government – although it might be in Scotland if it finds a way to remain an EU member.

At the same time, the cut and thrust of many CAP decisions will remain vital for the foreseeable future. UK ministers need to engage, as Fergus Ewing did this week by visiting Luxembourg for informal talks during the farm council.

The official position is that the UK’s departure from the EU was not on the agenda or discussed at the farm council, but it will remain the elephant in the room at every meeting.

Indeed, this week’s farm council was cut short by the departure of the farm commissioner, Phil Hogan, for an emergency meeting of commissioners to discuss the implications of Brexit.

This underlines that the UK will find itself in an awkward position in all negotiations for the next two years.

While ‘business as usual’ is what is needed, it will be all but impossible to achieve. The departure of the commissioner meant two major issues were postponed until the July farm council.

These were a new dairy package and the simplification of greening.

It seems almost certain that a new dairy package will emerge. It will be similar to the September package of around €500m, and will be financed from unused budget lines rather than the crisis reserve. Hogan has suggested it will be linked to reductions in milk production.

The maths of this do not, however, add up. The amount available will be thinly spread across EU dairy farmers and could not offset losses at farm level from any meaningful cut in milk output.

This suggests the commission will insist member states individually fund a voluntary milk supply reduction scheme. Some will refuse to do so, because they disagree with the thinking.

At the same time, Hogan knows that by the time a cut has any impact, the dairy market will be recovering.

This suggests he is coming up with a package for political reasons and not because he believes it will have any practical impact. This politicisation of decision-making is a hallmark of the CAP and one of the reasons many farmers supported the Leave arguments.

Things are even more stalled when it comes to greening. A simplification plan will emerge next month, which is welcome news.

However, the commission’s own study of greening confirms it sees the policy as effective in putting environmental principles into the CAP.

It makes much of the protein crops being grown, of the effectiveness of the three-crop rule and other aspects of greening.

It does concede that gains for wildlife from environmental focus areas have been limited.

It also confirms that farmers have made limited use of complex rules on landscape.

This all suggests changes will be about tweaking existing measures and that there is no little in Brussels for the radical changes farm lobby organisations are seeking.

At the same time, green pressure groups are demanding that greening is made even tougher.

As farmers in the UK look at yet another battle in Brussels that ignores the practicalities of farming, many will feel more confident that their wish to escape the CAP was justified.

However, the bigger issue now is whether a British government in charge of agricultural policy will bring more common sense to policy decisions.

Given that when it comes to policymaking at Westminster, the environment inevitably trumps agriculture, that seems a bit of a forlorn hope

By Richard Wright