View from the East by Dr Keith Dawson

We are now well into our harvest in Ukraine with our 25,000 acres of winter barley cut and in store and our oilseed rape almost half cut.

The winter crops came out of the hard winter well, but then like many crops suffered from a long cold spell before summer roared in with a long period without rain. This mirrored much of the arable cropping in Europe with a cold late spring then hitting the driest spell since 1976.

Readers with a long memory will recall the very high price of potatoes back then and the scandal of the purchase of invisible pea viners, to avoid tax by a handful of potato growers in Scotland.

In the first weeks of July, I drove through southern Germany, Czech Republic, Austria and Hungary and the picture was remarkably similar – crops senescing prematurely and dying through drought, rather than coming to a proper ripening.

This is now reflecting in yields at the cutter bar, driving an upward movement in prices. Revised USDA harvest and stock figures have now factored in the harvest reductions in Ukraine, EU, Russia and Australia, reducing harvest estimates by around 8%, again due to drought. This will require better than expected harvests from US, Canada and Argentina to make up a shortfall.

In Western Ukraine, severe patchy hailstorms have also hit ripened rape and soya and maize crops locally, causing significant localised damage.

On more recent visits to Ireland and Aberdeenshire (for the Cereals in Practice event) I was shocked to see the driest conditions in my time in Scotland taking a toll on both trial plots and commercial crops.

Reminiscing with Iain Davidson, we could not recall a drier spell there since winter cropping was pioneered by growers such as 'Mossie' with agronomy support from BASF and CSC – which was treated with disdain from some advisers at NOSCA in the early 1980s.

We also noted that, despite the advent of GPS, drones, min-till and robots, that arable systems had not, in essence, advanced greatly in that time from those pioneers. As the comedian Ed Byrne once noted: “It's easier to travel than write new material” – certainly that's a maxim with which this correspondent is familiar.

Active ingredients have improved, but the basic three to four spray programmes and fertiliser rates have remained a constant. N remains a key driver of arable profit and growers need to be careful before reducing it significantly. A 'big heap' still wins!

There is no doubt that the use of organic manures, such as Iain’s pig slurry, has helped buffer crops against drought stress and improve soil fertility in its broadest sense.

But, the widespread drought throughout Europe which is fuelling higher grain prices will make life tough for livestock producers who have a dearth of grass and an prospective increase in the price of concentrates.

The good soil management, allowing deep rooting in our winter barley in Ukraine, helped minimise our drought losses with a shortfall of only around 5% and OSR is even ahead of last year for us.

Further east, the picture is more severe, with losses of up to 30% common and rape looking stressed and sad in some areas. In the last three weeks, too late for winter crops, the rain came in our area of west Ukraine.

This has been a nuisance for harvest and has dramatically increased the levels of septoria, fusarium and DTR (tan spot) in ripening wheat crops and also given sleeping weeds an unwelcome boost. This may well have implications for grain quality, with mycotoxins – thus giving a double whammy of yield and quality issues. Higher prices will help ease that pain.

The rain helped the spring-sown crops of beet, potatoes, soya and maize and our small area of sunflowers. Soon we will be drilling again and as ever it is emergence date which is critical for overwintering not sowing date.

After five record harvests, this one is proving more difficult across the whole of Europe. It's worth reminding the public whenever we can that, as the T-shirt says, without Agronomists and Farmers they'd be Naked, Hungry and Sober!

The Dog’s Brexit continues with the backing down of the 'hard' Brexiteers and then either resignation or self-interested acquiesence from Johnston, Gove, Fox and Davis. Their tough rhetoric has been unmatched by weak, unprincipled cave-ins.

Certainly not in our lifetime have we been blessed with such a fine 'crop' of politicians on all sides of the House and at Holyrood too! It looks like Brino (Brexit in name only) may be the order of the day based on the White Paper that has been published.

This proposes no increased tariffs, or change in standards on agricultural products trading with the EU, which is good news. This changes on a daily basis with a 'No Deal' crash-out also being mooted post B-day!

On a recent visit to Northern Ireland, one could sense the tension and this has now flared up and commentators are openly talking about a united Ireland in our lifetime. An unintended consequence of Brexit?

But, as I said many months ago, the Irish border may yet be the rock which holes Brexit below the waterline.

There is still no workable plan from the pro-Brexiteers more than two years on from the referendum and with decades to work on such a plan prior to it.

However, May’s proposal was good news for the farming industry as food standards will be maintained and there will be lower competition from cheap sub-standard products. A trade deal involving hormone raised beef and chlorinated chicken with the US is unlikely in this scenario, despite Trump’s bluster. Good news for producers and processors, as well as the public’s health and safety.

May has not yet achieved parliamentary, or party agreement on her soft-boiled Brexit proposal yet, let alone that of the EU. A 'No Deal' would devastate rural economies.

Under the White Paper, environmental laws may remain largely in harmony and this, too, is reassuring. However, the new system of agricultural support remains woolier than a Merino and is likely to be less production oriented, as Gove is away with the green fairies it seems.

This is a major worry for the majority of UK farmers whose businesses are unprofitable without such support. The average loss is about £3000 per farm in the UK.

With average land quality lower in Scotland and fewer opportunity for diversification generally, support payments make up 75% of income, whereas it is only 50% in England, and it's above 80% in Wales and in Northern Ireland it's nearly 90%.

The stand-off between Westminster and the devolved governments on agricultural support is worrying and makes planning and investment almost impossible.

In Ukraine there is no government support and tax revenues have diminished with about 45% of the economy residing in the 'black' sector. This is largely due to the damage Putin has inflicted on the economy and the conflict in the east continues even now. Fortunately, we are not yet at the state of Venezuela where a dozen eggs keep their value better than cash!

The appalling Helsinki summit between Putin and Trump has set nerves jangling in Ukraine, Moldova and the Baltic states, despite Trump's subsequent double negative backtracking. Sadly, most Republicans can't see the 'wouldn't' for the Treason!

It is interesting to note that, since 1800, Russia has had to fight on the Northern European plain on average every 35 years. Russians take a long view of history and from Ivan the Terrible to Putin, geography has remained the same – their ports still freeze, the Black Sea still has a Turkish bottleneck and the North European plain remains a flat, fertile strategic weakness which colours their thinking.

Challenging times indeed!