IT’S going to be a knife-edge scenario for Scotland’s most important grain crop, spring barley, this year with regard to how much impact recent dry weather has had on the crop.

According to the AHDB’s planting survey, the spring crop area in Scotland has increased substantially for 2018, with spring barley up from 244,000 ha to 256,000 ha, while at the same time winter barley fell by 18%.

Gavin Dick, AHDB’s knowledge exchange manager, explained: “Due to the poor autumn drilling conditions in much of Scotland we have seen a fair drop in winter planting and an increase in the spring barley area.

“There are, of course, regional differences across Scotland. I certainly seem to see a lot more barley in the North-east and our figures show that while the wheat area in the south has decreased this year, in percentage terms we have seen a far bigger drop in wheat planting in the north.”

Overall, wheat has seen a marginal decrease, with 106,000 ha in the ground, down 3% on last year. In terms of varieties, the survey shows an increase in the area of nabim Group 3 varieties, representing 25% of the 2018 Scottish wheat area. This is up from 14% in 2017, seemingly at expense of the Group 4 soft wheat area.

The oilseed rape area has increased by 3% (to 35,000 ha) and the oat figures are almost identical to last year at 32,000 ha. However, the Scottish oat area remains historically high and above the five-year average of 29,000 ha.

While there is a clear difference in winter and spring barley planting figures, the total Scottish barley area overall has remained static. That means that any change in crop output we see later in the year will likely be down to environmental factors, such as the prolonged dry weather.

Malting barley varieties with full approval from the Malting Barley Committee for harvest 2018 account for 71% of the total Scottish barley area. This is up from 2017 when varieties with full approval for that harvest accounted for 57% of the area.

However, those figures should be treated with caution. Mr Dick added: “While there seems to be a big change in the proportion of barley grown with full approval this year that is likely largely down to the fact that Laureate was not approved at the beginning of last season, but many farmers grew it as it was recommended and it did then gain approval later in the year.”