REDUCED numbers coupled with increased demand are helping to fuel ex-farm beef values, with prices more or less up across the board for a fourth consecutive week.

Latest figures from AHDB reveal that steer, heifer and young bull numbers are down 2.1%, 9.7% and 10.7% respectively, on the previous week on a GB basis. Overall steer prices rose 3.8p per deadweight kg to level at 367.4p, with heifers increasing 3.6p to 367.1p and young bulls on a par with last week at 345.6p.

Cull cows numbers were in fact up 1.2% on the week, but averages also improved in this section at 236.4p (+4.9p).

Figures for the week ending September 1, show a similar trend in Scotland, albeit for an extra 6.5% steers compared to the previous seven days, with prices rising 4.3p to level at 386.0p. Heifers improved by 4.4p to 385.3p for 2.0% fewer, while the young bull average was the only section which slipped on the week by 4.6p to 364.0p for 8.9% less. The cow trade also rose in Scotland to 264.5p, up 2.4p for an extra 1.5%.

"The evidence remains that there are fewer finishing cattle in the pipeline compared to the same period last year," said Stuart Ashworth, director of economics at Quality Meat Scotland.

"We saw an increased number of heifers and prime cows slaughtered in July, which is a bit of a concern as some of these might have been kept for replacements, but there is little evidence to suggest, that heifers in particular were cashed due to the drought, when the weights were similar to last year."

Looking at the stats, the July 2018 kill of steers showed 18,200 were slaughtered at an average weight of 366kg deadweight, compared to the July 2017 figures of 18,400 at 366kg, with heifer numbers at 13,400 at 328kg against 12,600 at 329kg last year. Young bull numbers increased slightly at 5300 at 344kg compared to July 2017 of 5200 at 346kg with cull cow numbers increasing to 13,100 from 11,000 with slaughter weights slipping to 303kg compared to 310kg in July 2017.

"Carcase weights for steers and heifers show little change which suggests no distress sales due to the drought and the lack of grass, but an increase in the number of cows slaughtered and at lower weights does point to either dairy cows or under finished sucklers being sold off," said Mr Ashworth.

Add to that a 2% in the reduction of cattle about to hit the market late autumn/winter ie those at 12-18months of age, or rising two-year-olds this autumn, and Mr Ashworth believes the market for prime beef should remain relatively buoyant over the next few months depending on consumer demand.

Looking further ahead, he said the shortage of prime cattle is likely to remain for the next year, as the number of cattle between six and 30 months in Scotland is thought to be down 0.8% on the previous 12 months. And, with BCMS confirming the number of cattle deaths under 12 months of age in the first half of 2018 has risen by more than 2500 on the year to 19,863, as a result of the bad weather in the spring, prices could remain buoyant for even longer.

It's a similar situation across the Irish Sea too where cattle slaughterings in July increased by 14% and were up 3.2% since turn of year again due to a bigger increase in the total cow kill than prime kill). December 2017 census showed an increase of 0.5% in under one year old cattle all due to increase in heifers 1-2 year old at December 2017 was also up (0.8%) this would suggest that Irish supplies may tighten up a bit as well this autumn given level of increase in kill so far.

Looking further afield, the EU beef market appears to have struggled somewhat in 2018 so far, with household panel surveys in the key consuming countries indicating demand has been falling this year.

While UK burger and mince sales have blossomed under the summer sun, the ground beef market in France (which includes burgers and steak haché) does not show the same positivity.

French Kantar Worldpanel data indicates sales of frozen mince during the first half of the year slipped 2% in volume terms, compared with the same period in 2017. This is despite strong demand for manufacturing beef, which has been reportedly supporting the cow beef market in Europe this year.

France is the largest beef market in the EU, which would indicate the demand was coming either from other countries, or other outlets, e.g. processed products or food service. Household purchases of beef cuts (which excludes mince) were down 6% in volume terms in January to June 2018. This follows a number of years with similar declines. Average prices have been rising (+1% year-on-year), which may also be influencing the decline in volume sales.

In Germany, household demand for beef had been growing strongly, but seems to have lost momentum in the first half of 2018. Purchases were up 10% in 2017, but have since slumped 2% across January to June this year. Chicken was the only meat to record volume sales growth across this period, suggesting changing consumer preferences and falling price competitiveness may also have influenced the decline. Like France, beef/pork mince sales also recorded a small (-1%) decline in volume across the period.

In southern Europe, Spain recorded a similar pattern to the above with volume purchases falling in the first quarter of this year (-8% year-on-year). Household spending on beef also fell 6% year-on-year. While volumes have been generally declining in recent years, this latest data represents a worsening of sales compared to previous years with little sign of upward momentum developing.

In contrast, demand in Italy is reported to be improving. Volume purchases increased 2.5% in the first quarter, despite retail prices moving up. The consumer picture for meat in general is improving in Italy, reflecting the uplift in economic conditions in the country compared to previous years.

While EU beef production is only anticipated to increase modestly in the short term, ample global supplies mean increasing demand will nonetheless be important for supporting EU prices. However, as in the UK, it should be noted that consumers preferences are shifting across Europe, and processors and retailers are working hard to ensure product is meeting their needs.