Reducing supplies of lamb in New Zealand have seen increased prices which look set to continue in the coming months as the season comes to an end.
According to the latest reports, New Zealand slaughter numbers were down 29% on the year for the week ending August 17, which in turn resulted in higher prices that are slowly drawing out the remaining lambs in the system.
Total slaughter up to the same week was 3.4% higher than the same time in 2023, when the lamb crop and slaughter capability was impacted by poor weather conditions.
Rabobank claims export demand from the EU, UK, and USA was strong in July.
This contrasts with demand from China, which remains challenging, forcing New Zealand exporters to lean onto other markets to gain maximum value from the carcase.
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The situation in Australia is similar due to the reduced numbers of lambs available.
According to a report from Rabobank this is due to poor weather and higher slaughter levels earlier in the season. Prices, as a result, look set to improve in the coming weeks as small numbers from the new season crop appear alongside what is left of old season lambs.
While production looks set to be down in New Zealand, in Australia, new records are being broken with the 2024 season beginning in September expected to increase 11% to 665,000t.
Lamb slaughter follows a similar pattern, up 11% from 2023 to a new record of 27.7m head for 2024.
In contrast, Beef and Lamb New Zealand (B&LNZ) have released their forecasts for the season, which started in September.
They predict the New Zealand total number of lambs to be down by just over 5% to 19.2m head for 2024/25 (September-September), the latest in the line of yearly declines.
The total number of lambs slaughtered and available for export is expected to be 1.2m head, down from 2023, sitting at 16.8m head for the 2024/25 season.
This is due to the smaller lamb crop and higher expected retention to rebuild flocks following drought across the country.
Overall, these factors combined, see production predictions to be down just over 7% in total, to around 322,000t.
Carcase weights are also down on previous years.
Meanwhile, Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) forecasts the number of breeding ewes in Australia to fall 2.7% to just under 77m head for 2025 with lamb kill expected to slip by 5% to 26.3m.
Overall, production is set to fall back by 4% to 640,000t for 2024, as carcase weights are expected to remain stable, assuming there are no significant weather events that could impact weights.
What might not be the best news for farmers down under, could nevertheless prove fruitful for GB producers.
Falling production in both the short term over the next month, and longer term in Australia and New Zealand could provide strength to southern hemisphere prices.
This strength could help ease the differential between GB prices and those in Australasia.
And, if this price differential continues to narrow, import volumes may become less enticing than they have done in recent years.
However, according to AHDB, China and the Middle East remain key players, with the total amount available for export largely dependant on how much sheepmeat they import in the coming months against a longer term backdrop of tighter global supplies.
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