By Alasdair Macnab
I write this with a warning – please read this as an overview of the big picture. There are no doubt points with which those of a pedantic nature may take issue; but to do so misses the point of this article.
The two key points in my last article were what the big picture is and what are the straws in the wind?
It is wrong to believe that you can understand the world by following the news alone. One of the biggest mistakes that the media makes is to broadcast different stories on different days. As I noted in the last column focussing on single issues or events and what might go wrong can mean that message drowns out those trying to get over a bigger picture or message. Cutting Scotland’s cattle herd by a quarter is such an example.
As we all know in farming the world is against us, we are the destructors of the planet. How can we take control of the narrative? We can do it by dealing with facts, science and where it all fits in the big picture.
Much was said about Jim Walker’s revelation about Scottish civil servants’ thinking that to reduce greenhouse gas emissions we need to reduce the Scottish cattle herd by a quarter. Let’s have a wee look at the big picture before we let them get away with this proposal; the daftness of which you can make your own mind up about at the end of this column.
To really understand the big picture and what is going on we first need to find a reliable, unbiased and honest source of information. Halleluiah!! I have found such a source. It is very comprehensive, all its data sources are quoted, the interactive graphs and interpretations are excellent, easy to use and the analysts are well recognised in their areas of expertise. It’s the website 'Our World in Data.'
Finding this website has reawakened my passion for learning new things, much to Gill’s dismay. Quote: “Did you hear me? Did you feed the cat? Dinner is ready.” I can only tell you this because I’m on the whatever replay of the record. It is a highly interesting site.
I’ve told you about metadata, the congregation of huge amounts of data and the use of that data. This is what this site is about. It takes scientific research, surveys, government data, and other data, amalgamates it then draws conclusions and explains the differences in the data. It sets out the big picture of our world.
A lot of it is not what you expect. Indeed it is game changing. Let me introduce you to some of the climate change data, the issues with it and what it really means for cattle in Scotland.
Since 1751 the world has emitted over 1.5 trillion tonnes of CO2 – work that out as a pile of barley (it’s about 54m lorry loads). Once CO2 is in the atmosphere, unlike methane, it stays there for a very, very, long time, hence the need to reduce emissions and start carbon capture. To reach the climate goal of limiting average temperature rise to 2°C, the world needs to urgently reduce emissions.
One common argument is that those countries which have added most to the CO2 in our atmosphere – contributing most to the problem today – should take on the greatest responsibility in tackling it. This may explain the zest within our governments for drastic action to show 'international leadership'. Are they correct? Let’s examine the facts.
By adding up each country’s annual CO2 emissions over time from 1751 through to 2017 you can work out the biggest contributors. Key points we can learn from this perspective:
1. The United States has emitted more CO2 than any other country to date: at around 400bn tonnes since 1751, it is responsible for 25% of historical emissions;
2. This is twice more than China’s historical output – China is now the world’s current largest national contributor;
3. The 28 countries of the pre-Brexit European Union (EU-28) is also a large historical contributor at 22% of the total;
4. Many of the large annual emitters today – such as China and India – are not large contributors in a historical context;
What becomes clear is that currently the countries with the highest accumulated emissions over history are not the biggest emitters today. The UK, for example, was responsible for only 1% of global emissions in 2017. Reductions here will have an unnoticeable impact on emissions at the global level. This conundrum is one of the main reasons which makes international agreement on who should take action so challenging.
In September 2015 the United Nations set Sustainable Development Goals which all countries of the world have agreed to work towards. These goals are targets for global development set to be achieved by 2030. They cover almost every aspect of how our world works. The ones that will impact farming most are zero hunger; climate action; life on land; responsible consumption and production and clean water and sanitation.
Many of these goals already have projects implemented in the UK to deliver the UN targets such as sustainability; halting biodiversity loss; improving water quality. Worryingly many UN targets have not been met or are not being measured.
Where does this leave the Scottish cattle herd in the big picture? A study of Table 1 will give you an insight to the history of CO2 emissions for six of the bigger players. Bear in mind the figures in Table 1 do not include emissions from agriculture – they are not included so as to demonstrate the big picture of what really needs to be tackled – human overuse of the planet’s resources and because there is no international agreement on how they are calculated. It is easier to look at the emission of CO2 from other human activity.
The table shows the UK has had a relatively stable level of CO2 emissions over the last 100 years and we have actually reduced our non agriculture emissions over the last 20 years by 73%.
Of note is the impact of developing economies like China (increase of 500x in 100 years). China has now embarked on a massive construction programme to build its economy further which has resulted in another increase in its CO2 emissions. Is this not the real issue the world should be tackling and not reducing a few head of cattle in one of the smaller countries in the world?
Given that livestock production accounts for about 5.8% of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide; and for simplicity assume that it also accounts for 5% of UK greenhouse gas emissions and our civil servants want to reduce the Scottish cattle herd by 25%. In UK terms that is 5% of the UK herd.
The reduction in terms of CO2 is 5% of 5% of the UK share at 1% of CO2 worldwide emissions. In global terms it is 0.0025% of world emissions. I would compare that to breaking wind in the face of a massive thunderstorm. Given methane is a slightly different calculation but that is not the point of this article.
To compound the felony I note that China is now increasingly driven to import huge amounts of cereals, beef, lamb and pork following on from the outbreak of a new strain of African Swine Fever and the monumental loss of crops and livestock following 40” of rain in two weeks last July which wiped out huge arable and livestock areas of the Yangtze River valley.
Brazil has almost run out of beef to export and their domestic abattoirs are now shut down, Australia has lost a huge headage of cattle and is rebuilding their herd and Japan is unable now to source the volume of beef it seeks. World beef prices are rising quickly. What happens when prices rise? Farmers respond accordingly; so much for reducing the Scottish herd.
This scenario will not sit well with our civil servants whose mantra seems to be reducing emissions rather than ensuring folk are firstly fed and then tackle the real big picture issues I have outlined here. Countries are like children, keep them well fed and they won’t fight. The UN has predicted the next war will be over water, given the scenarios currently playing out across the world it may be over food.
There is an old, allegedly Chinese curse, may you live in interesting times. We are indeed.
I wish to acknowledge Our World in Data website for the information used.
NOTE – any arithmetical errors in my table are justified by my arithmetical and spreadsheet inabilities.
CO2 Emission table
1919 1969 1979 1999 2019 tonnes since 1969 tonnes since 1999 % change in last 40 years % change in last 20 years
UK 0.45 0.62 0.64 0.56 0.37 -0.25 -0.19 -68 -73
USA 1.48 4.02 4.89 5.83 5.28 1.26 -0.55 24 7
RUSSIA 0.02 1.37 2.05 1.49 1.68 0.31 0.19 18 -22
EU-27 0.68 3.15 4.1 3.6 2.92 -0.23 -0.68 -8 -40
INDIA 0.04 0.18 0.27 0.95 2.62 2.44 1.67 93 90
CHINA 0.02 0.57 1.49 3.26 10.17 9.60 6.91 94 85
BIG 6 CO2 2.69 9.91 13.44 15.69 23.04 13.13 7.35 57 42
WORLD CO2 3.02 13.69 19.46 24.43 36.44 22.75 12.01 62 47
UK share of world CO2 % 15 5 3 2 1 -1 -2 -119 -175
CHINA share of world CO2 % 1 4 8 13 28 42 58 166 205
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