A steady rise for finished hoggs has pushed them to be the dearest trade this year, with the market clearing at 268p per kg – although this still doesn’t compare to last year’s record high.

After slipping back in February at Scottish auctions, finished hogg prices recovered through March due to a seasonal lift in demand, according to the latest market commentary from QMS.

During the week ending April 2, the GB deadweight OSL SQQ gained just over 10p, reaching 576.1p/kg. The quote now stands around 40p below year earlier levels, but over 50p above the five-year average according to AHDB.

Iain Macdonald, QMS senior economics analyst, commented: “This recent upturn is likely to have been driven by increased consumer demand for the start of Ramadan, which began at the turn of the month, and then Easter, which is in mid-April this year.

“A general tightness of the sheepmeat market is also reflected in the cull sheep price,” he added, with ewes and rams averaging £107 per head in late March and early April, up from an average of £92 in the first 12 weeks of the year.

However, hogg prices at Scottish marts have been running 5-10% below the highs of early 2021 since the beginning of February and the recent upturn has not led to a change in this position.

Mr Macdonald observed that this was likely to reflect a recovery in supply from the low levels seen in the first third of 2021.

“On the production side, this season’s lamb crop has arrived later onto the market, compared to the early delivery profile in 2020/21. As a result, there has been an increased carryover of hoggs this season, with sheep and goat inventory results showing a 4% increase in Scotland, and a 9% uplift in England,” added Mr Macdonald.

Despite failing to match last year’s highs, hogg prices have held up historically, exceeding their five-year average by 10-20% in recent weeks. This showed that the market has remained tight in a historical context, with supply on the UK market in the opening two months of the year well below the levels seen between 2016 and 2019.

Lawrie and Symington’s Lanark Centre saw this week’s sale of 3703 hoggs cash in at 261p per kg with a SQQ of 278p, with export and light hoggs dearer but heavier hoggs harder to cash.

It was a similar story among the cast ewes, with numbers beginning to tighten everywhere keeping the prices as dear as ever, where the sale topped at £286 for Texels, having averaged £116.

Further North, Colin Slessor, deputy head of livestock at Aberdeen and Northern Marts, agreed that although the heights of last year had not been met, trade was still strong for the sector.

“Although trade will be behind on the year, we have witnessed a steady rise these last three weeks, with numbers starting to firm up.

"A late Easter has allowed the trade to continue, and we hope to get another month before numbers and quality starts to fall,” he said, adding that heavier hoggs needed to be cashed in a little sharper to help balance out any increased costs of feed," continued Mr Slessor.

“Heavier hoggs are tougher to sell and are slightly disappointing on the year. However, the ewe trade has been exceptional week after week driven by the demand for the Ramadan festival, as well as numbers being tight. They are expected to remain that way,” added Colin.

Just across the Border, the story continued in the same vein – 'trade had not been able to increase forever for hoggs', according to James Little, auctioneer for Harrison and Hetherington’s Carlisle centre.

“This week is the dearest we have seen them for a month of two, but the peak was November/ December this year, which is unusual. Everyone got excited thinking that trade would rise again come spring, but it never materialised, it has been fairly steady since the start of the year,” added James.

In Carlisle, hoggs took a 10p jump on the week, with a pair of Texels achieving 659.1p per kg at this week’s sale.

“Easter being a little bit later has been the reason for the jump, the early sales this week will catch the Easter demand for the weekend. Numbers will tend to fall after this week which in turn should hold the trade,” he added.

With lambing over in some parts of the country and just getting going in others, thoughts will soon be turning to the outlook for the new season lamb market.

Iain Macdonald commented: “For a complete picture of the supply-side outlook, we need to consider imports and exports. In recent years, imports have dipped towards 20% of market supply, while around 30% of production has been exported.

“With sheepmeat prices remaining at attractive levels in China and New Zealand having a similar number of lambs this season, it seems unlikely that import volumes will rebound significantly from the low levels of recent years.

“For exports, 2021 was a difficult year with the introduction of EU border controls constraining volumes along with reduced domestic production. However, by autumn, the share of production exported had returned to year earlier levels," he pointed out.

"In 2022, a general tightness in EU meat markets and a 3% reduction in the breeding flock may lead to increased demand for sheepmeat from the UK, and any increase in UK exports removes supply from the domestic market.

“Combining the outlook for new season production and trade suggests that the UK sheepmeat market will remain tightly supplied in summer and autumn 2022, pointing to a continuation of positive returns for producers,” concluded Mr Macdonald.