Over these past few days, we have at last seen some good steady rain which has done a lot of good to autumn sown crops and many fields now have a nice green seed bed and will encourage more autumn planting to take place.

Potato lifting had been stopped on some light land as there was not enough moisture in the soil to help the potatoes to be harvested, but the situation is quickly resolving itself.

Up until the end of August, in the Borders at Lochton, near Coldsteam, 259.3mm, or 10.20 inches had fallen for the year to date and I am told that at that time over 14 inches of rain would need to fall just to get to the previous average rainfall for the first eight months of the year!

Wheat futures have been moving up recently again, due to various factors but one of them being the low maize production both in the US and EU due to prolonged dry and hot weather conditions that have damaged the yield potential. Maize production is looking to be the lowest since 2019 and well below the previous estimate of 364m tonnes.

French maize crop ratings were down again last week to 45% 'good to excellent', compared to the 91% 'good to excellent' at the same time last year. France is looking at a maize crop of 10.8m tonnes – the lowest for over 20 years and well below last season’s 15.5m-tonne crop. This is helping to support global cereal markets.

November, 2022, Liffee feed wheat futures currently stand at £276 per tonne, having risen £9 over the past month and for March, 2023, stand at £280.05 – up nearly £5 over the same period. Going further forward to November, 2023, and wheat futures stand at £264.75 which is £18.25 per tonne up over the past four weeks.

Recently delivered feed wheat in the south of England for September delivery was quoted at £263 per tonne,s up £8 from the previous week and bread wheat delivered into the North-west of England, for November, was quoted at £331.50, which was up £9.50 on the week.

EU wheat export details are not thought to be all that accurate, but figures at the end of August indicated a total until then of 4.86m tonnes which is thought to be approximately 1.5m tonnes underestimated.

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and a deal signed on July 22 to allow ports to re-open, up until the end of August, 61 cargo ships had left the country carrying about 1.5m tonnes of food but there had also been some tonnage moved over land as well. Maize makes up 63% of this total tonnage, followed by wheat at 17% and barley at 6%.

In 2021, Ukraine's total grain export total was 3.09m tonnes in July and 5.78m tonnes in August. For oilseeds, July saw Ukraine export 116,300 tonnes of rapeseed and 367,000 tonnes of sunflower seed.

In October, exports could rise to over 6m tonnes but there are concerns over insurance and Russian military action shelling the ports. Russia is also putting pressure onto what countries the Ukraine can export their goods to.

Ukrainian production for this harvest is estimated to drop to 50m tonnes from 86m tonnes in 2021. They planted more than 6m ha of winter wheat, but only around 4.6m ha will have been harvested due to the invasion.

For harvest, 2023, winter wheat and barley plantings are expected to fall by around 30-40% to around 3.8m ha with lower yields as fertiliser use declines due to lack of funds, but rapeseed is expected to remain unchanged. The 2023 wheat crop is likely to be in the region of 15m tonnes – well down on the record crop in 2020 of almost 33m tonnes.

Domestic demand is around 10m tonnes which leaves the country with a tonnage to export provided the shipment routes currently open continue to be in operation.

Recently the latest HMRC trade data was released for last season 2021-22. The UK exported 508,780 tonnes of wheat with the majority going to Ireland, Spain and the Netherlands. Full season exports were 30% less than the five-year average but more than double the 2020-21 tonnage of 209,400 tonnes.

In 2021-22 the UK imported 1.992m tonnes of wheat which exceeded the forecast figure by 240,000 tonnes which meant that stocks for the 2022-23 season will be higher than forecast previously.

With a good wheat harvest in 2022 it is likely that the UK will have a larger exportable surplus going forward and in terms of imports, the UK may look to import more higher protein wheat this season, if the domestic crop does not meet specifications.

The first provisional results from harvest 2022 suggest that milling wheat samples are displaying lower percentage protein content, but specific weights and Hagbergs look high. The average protein content of UK flour millers Group 1 varieties sits at 12.5% which is below the milling specification of greater than or equal to 13%.

The figure is down 0.7% from 2021, which was at 13.2% and lower than the three-year average of 13%. These lower protein levels are likely as a result of limited nitrogen uptake due to hot and dry weather at the time of final application. Average Hagbergs of Group 1 wheats were 346 which is 60, or 21%, above 2021 and 37, or 12.1%, above the three-year average.

The average specific weight of Group 1 varieties is 81.8kg/hl, up 8.4% 6.4kg/hl from last year’s average and compared to the three-year average, up 5.5% or 4.2kg/hl. Overall, provisional results show that 31% of group1 samples are meeting a typical group1 specification, which is 11% up from the 20% that met specification in the final 2021 results and like 2020 where 31% met the specification requirements.

Feed barley is continuing to trade between £14-£17 per tonne below feed wheat prices but there is little domestic demand at present due to higher grain prices, especially for animal feed. July, 2022, feed production was down 8% from the year before and animal feed production is expected to decline this season mainly due to the pig and poultry sector. In 2021-22 full season animal feed production was at its lowest level since 2016-17.

Domestic malting barley values are dropping to export levels given the high pass rate of UK spring barley this harvest and total premiums over feed sit at around £25-£35 per tonne, depending on location.

Provisional results from this harvest show GB nitrogen content in barley at 1.52%, which is the second highest since 2017 but in Scotland the nitrogen level average was 1.41%. Winter barley nitrogen averaged 1.62% up from 1.57% last year and spring barley average was 1.49% slightly up from 1.48% in 2021. Specific weights were up on last year at 67.3kg/hl which was 4.1kg/hl or 6.5% up on 2021.

The pound sterling and euro have weakened considerably to the US dollar over the past month with the £1.00 last week equating to $1.1516 and the euro closed at 1Euro =$0.9902 which is down 6% and 3.5% respectively from August. The pound is struggling with surging inflation, looming recession, the fourth prime minister in six years and borrowing set to increase. The US however is finding strength as their economy, outperforms other countries by fighting inflation and job creation.

The Euro has suffered by the closure of Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline leading to spiking gas price rises. With domestic production of fertiliser reducing, we are going to be more reliant on imported nitrogen products and so a weaker sterling will mean more expensive nitrogen which adds another layer of uncertainty to 2023 crop production.

Natural gas futures reached 558.00/therm, jumping 38.6% on the 5thSeptember close of 402.42/therm but trading closed earlier at 462.60/therm which is a 245% increase at the same time last year. Gas prices in Europe reached £7.00 per therm last week with highs being quoted at £8.50 per therm for winter supply and as a result 70% of all ammonium nitrate production in Europe has been halted.

There has been little change in UK rapeseed prices over the past week as they remain at a seven-month low and sitting at more than £200.00 per tonne below levels seen just three months ago. As buyers are aware that there is more available tonnage for this coming season they are in no rush to secure supplies as Canada has had a much better Canola growing season this time round. Last year their crop was 7m tonnes down on the previous year but expect to be 7m tonnes better this year and could see increased export tonnage to China. The Ukraine has had a better rapeseed harvest than expected at 3.1m tonnes and appear to be able to export the tonnage as well but this could all suddenly change.

The EU rapeseed harvest is now forecast up to 19.2m tonnes from 18.5m tonnes which will be 12.9% above last year’s level due to better growing conditions and

delivered rapeseed into Erith for November 2022 is quoted at £530.50, up £1.00 on the week.