Weather

WE have seen the driest start to November since records began in 1891, with Scotland having an average of just half an inch, or 12mm, of rain in the first two weeks of the month which equates to just 9% of what would normally be expected. The east of Scotland only had a fifth of an inch (5mm) of rain which has seen warnings of water restrictions as river levels are very low and reservoir levels have dropped significantly.

Following a relatively mild start to November, temperatures have dropped to levels not seen at this time of year as arctic air suddenly came down from the north with temperatures down as low as -11.8C in Aberdeenshire. A reading of -10.9C before November 19 has not been seen since 1998.

Last weekend, Storm Bert hit the UK, and we saw some snow and very cold and wet conditions, but in the Borders the snow soon went as temperatures rose again at the beginning of this week. Other parts of the UK have suffered from severe flooding once again.

UK 2025 crop prospects

The overall winter wheat area is forecast to rise by 5.4% after last autumn’s poor weather saw a reduced planted area. This year, according to the AHDB Early Bird Survey, 1.613m/ha of wheat is forecast to be planted but will still be below the 2019-23 average of 1.705m/ha.

The area of oats is expected to rise by 3.5% to 189,000ha and if this turns out to be the true figure then the area would be slightly above the 2019-23 average but below the 2021 total of 200,000ha. The winter barley area is estimated to be down by just under 1%, mainly due to wet autumn conditions in England in September.

The spring barley area is expected to fall by 13% after rising sharply in 2024, due again to poor sowing conditions in the previous autumn while the poor current malting barley premium is not encouraging farmers to plant both winter and spring barley.

The 2025 spring barley area forecast at 704,000ha would still be above the 2022 and 2023 total but coupled with the lower winter barley area, this would see the lowest UK barley area since 2014 at 1.84m/ha. If this area is confirmed and with average yields, then the UK barley crop production in 2025 could fall below the provisional 2024 barley crop production of 7.2m/t.

The UK oilseed rape crop is forecast to drop by 17% and if confirmed would reduce the planted area to its lowest for 42 years and could even be lower if crops are damaged by pests, such as cabbage stem flea beetle and weather conditions between now and harvest. Normally when the oilseed rape area drops it is partially replaced by pulses, but this does not seem to be the case this season with the pulse area falling by around 7% from last harvest.

UK wheat prices and quality

The Liffe feed wheat futures have remained reasonably static over the past two weeks and May 2025 remains at £190.50/t as it was previously, and for November 2025 stands as it was two weeks ago at £189/t. Milling wheat premiums, however, have eased as the gap between the UK monthly average ex-farm spot prices for bread and feed wheat sat at £42.20/t in October. This is down from £50.20/t in September and £59.60 a year earlier but still higher than the previous five-year average for October of £35.74/t.

More recently, at the beginning of this month, the UK spot ex-farm bread milling wheat averaged just £29.90/t over feed wheat. Due to the difficult planting and growing conditions in 2023-24, the UK wheat production was around 11.1m/t which was down 21% on the five-year average but the size of the crop was not as small as some in the industry had forecast and this put pressure on premiums as a result.

The AHDB Cereal Quality Survey indicated that the 2024 wheat crop produced lower-than-average protein content compared to 2023 and another factor affecting premiums is the reduced demand for milling wheat. There is also the competitively priced imported milling wheat which is an important factor and which has eased premiums as well.

In July and August, the UK imported 607,500t of wheat, more than double the amount imported at this time last year and up 95% on the five-year average.

Over half the imported wheat to date has come from either Canada or Germany and, given the size of the UK crop this harvest, an increased total of imports will be required, and it is unlikely that premiums will return to last year’s levels in the short term.

Global wheat update

The Australian wheat harvest is under way and normally runs from October to February. Last year, Australia produced 25m/t of wheat and this year is looking at 32m/t, of which 25m/t will be exported.

The main reason for the increase in production this year is higher yields due to good growing weather and wheat exports will have a very important influence on the world grain market in the coming months. Recent rain has improved the condition of the US winter wheat crop, with 44% of their crop rated good to excellent as of November 10 and winter wheat planting 91% complete.

In France, their winter wheat planting is 90% complete, up from 78% last week. Their winter barley planting is 96% complete and maize 82% done, up from 71% last week.

European wheat markets rose recently in response to escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine but there has been no immediate impact on grain exports from the Black Sea. Dry soil conditions continue in Russia and Ukraine where over 97% of the intended planted area has been completed.

Russia is looking to plant 15.4m/ha which would be the lowest since 2018-19.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is looking to produce 25m/t in 2025 which would be up from their 22.4m/t this year even though Ukraine has lost 18% of its agricultural land because of the conflict with Russia.

The International Grains Council has reduced the EU 2024 wheat harvest to 120.3m/t, which is 10% lower than last year.

Wheat imports and exports

EU wheat exports to date total just 8.79m/t compared to 12.66m/t last year. Ukraine wheat exports are now up to 8.3m/t from a quota for the season of 16.2m/t. Due to the poor UK wheat harvest this year it has become one of the main wheat importers from the EU with 700,000t imported to date.

Other countries include North Africa, Algeria, Egypt and Morocco which is believed to have bought up to 1m/t of wheat since October. This will help the French trade with up to 250,000t of the share, and Russia is thought to have sold 500,000t as well.

Barley

Feed barley prices have picked up on the back of stronger wheat prices, partly due to the ongoing uncertainty with the Russian-Ukraine war. Prices were also supported by some feed barley exports to Ireland although export tonnage has been less than usual. Demand for feed barley for animal feed rations has been less than normal due to the recent mild autumn but now that cold weather has arrived this will see more feed requirement. Feed barley is still trading at around £25-£30/t below wheat so remains good value for inclusion in feed ration compared to other commodities. The malting barley premium over feed continues to come down with limited malting barley demand and this could see more potential malting barley being sold for feed.

Oilseed rape

Rapeseed prices have been volatile due to lower production in the current marketing year. The 2024 UK oilseed rape crop is expected to be the lowest since at least the early 1980s at 837,000t – 31% down on last year due to lower planted area and lower yields.

UK winter oilseed rape yields were down 7.7% to average 2.97t/ha. According to data from the EU Commission, rapeseed imports from July to now have reached 2.34m/t, up from 2.02m/t at the same time last year.

The main suppliers are Ukraine, with 70% of the tonnage, and Australia with just over 20% of the tonnage and which is looking at a canola production of around 6m/t. Rapeseed delivered Erith for November 2024 was quoted at £431.00/t last week, down £15.50 on the previous week and for February 2025 delivery the price quoted was £436.50/t which was down £16 from last week.