It is an old saying, but nonetheless true, that markets hate uncertainty. These conditions give a few who are brave the opportunity to make a killing, but for most it is a headache.

Uncertain conditions do not come bigger than the world's superpowers in a stand-off over Ukraine and this is adding strain to already difficult markets. Fertiliser prices are a major issue some hoped might improve, but Russia has slapped a ban on the export of ammonium nitrate. It says this is to protect supplies to its own farmers, but given current tensions this might be another way to emphasise the strength of its energy hand.

Adding a further twist to this mix was the warning from the boss of Tesco, John Allan, that the 'worst was yet to come' on food prices. This is because every part of the food chain is facing higher costs and can no longer absorb these. What will be interesting over the common months of things getting worse for consumers will be how farmers fare in this process. They are facing the same cost pressures. Indeed thanks to fertiliser and energy costs they are in an even worse inflationary spiral. The process of farmers receiving a smaller share of what consumers spend is well established. As they feel the full impact of food price inflation it will be interesting to see how much of that comes back to farmers. The industry needs to be off the starting blocks quickly with sound figures to show consumers higher prices are not a bonanza for farmers.

This week's prize for stating the obvious has to go to the House of Commons public accounts committee, which concluded that Brexit is causing increased costs and delays for businesses. That is perhaps unfairly cynical, given that the cross party committee at least had the courage to prick the government's bubble that things are going well with Brexit. Like the food price rises, the problems highlighted by the committee are set to get even worse when, unlike the EU, the UK finally gets around to implementing its own rules on customs checks on food imported from Europe. Time will tell whether it is capable of doing so, but what is clear in figures from the EU is that Brexit has been an entirely one way issue so far as problems with food exports are concerned.

The EU is now almost embarrassed when it produces its monthly trade figures. This is because they are so good, led by a post-pandemic – and post EU/US trade tensions over aircraft – boom in exports. This is particularly true for high value products such as wine and spirits, but spreads right across the board. In the first ten months of 2021, after Brexit was fully in place, EU exports rose by 7% and imports by 7%. The EU is now the world's biggest agri-trader and its positive balance of trade balance between exports and imports rocketed in 2021 by 14% ahead. It is the number one target for countries seeking trade deals and whether measured in numbers or growth rates its figures are at record levels.

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This means that UK has not only left the world's biggest trading bloc, but has it on its doorstep as a competitor for the same markets with deep pockets and valuable trade deals to offer. The Conservative party might no longer be the party of business, but even it must be able to see the commercial reality of that situation.

Hidden in those figures is the issue the House of Commons committee raised. They show that for EU exports to the UK, the Brexit effect is over. After an initial dip when Brexit was formalised in January 2021, they recovered steadily to the point where trade passed the previous year. It is now effectively back to normal, thanks in part to the UK's inability to police its own rules on imports or risk food shortages.

By contrast, UK food exports to the EU fell by more than any other country, plunging by 26% in the first ten months after Brexit was completed. The world now has a problem again with Russia, as the bear on Europe's doorstep. But when it comes to trade, the UK now has a problem because it has a behemoth trader not only on its doorstop but as a competitor with more to sell and a £150 million budget to promote its food.