I AM not sure who Chris Grayling, the transport secretary, was targeting when he suggested farmers might do better with a no deal Brexit outcome.

He did not convince the farming lobby and it is unlikely this little known minister frightened many in the EU-27 about the prospect of losing access to the UK market.

If the boom for agriculture he suggested was realistic, farmers would like his message – but that is not the case. To be fair, he was trying to make the point that it was in the interests of the EU-27 to ensure a deal is done to secure continued market access.

The problem with ill thought out claims like this is that some people believe them. He painted a picture of farmers in Britain producing and selling more food, which would be welcome news.

However, there are limitations on land and labour. There are also realities surrounding the need for continued support and an easing of regulations if farming is to become more efficient.

This is the only way it can produce more from the same land area and other limiting resources.

The big problem with his suggestion is that the UK market is not closed. Even if food supplies from the EU-27 were reduced, the government is committed to opening the UK market to countries outside the EU. That would fill any gaps left by EU-27 suppliers, and probably at lower prices.

In future, if politicians are going to make rash claims about the future of farming, they should be forced to answer one question. That is whether the government will ensure that food imports match UK standards in every respect and that they face the same duties that would apply selling into the EU-27?

That commitment is unlikely to be given. Without it, any claims along the lines of those from Chris Grayling are either naïve or calculated to fool only those that do not understand the issues.

We live in something of a Brexit bubble now, distanced from events in the EU and indeed in the rest of the world. This is the price to be paid when an industry becomes dominated by a single issue.

But there are things going on in Europe that we should be taking on board. One interesting event in France is pressure from the very top, in the shape of the president Emmanuel Macron, for a radical change in how the food chain works.

The changes he wants are something farmers in Scotland may well envy. He has told farmers he is prepared to introduce legislation to change completely how pricing works.

Instead of it being driven by the power of the retailers to set a price and then squeeze suppliers, he wants it the other way around, with farmers' cost of production the starting point.

This has been welcomed by major food processors on the grounds that they too lose out from the relentless squeeze on margins by the big retailers, leaving them with no option other than to pass this on to farmers. This is about changing the balance of power in the food chain.

But despite the promise of legislation, if necessary, it is still open to question whether it is deliverable.

At one extreme consumers might reject the potential increase in prices, while at the other retailers might be too embarrassed to be seen to resist what seems to be popular thinking. There is also, as in the UK after Brexit, the problem of France not being a closed market.

Retailers could simply turn to other suppliers from the rest of the EU. This is in many ways a game of bluff to see who blinks first.

Will it be Macron, having to introduce legislation, or will the supermarkets accept a change of approach and be seen to maintain prices while a share of their profits move towards farmers.

Also raised this week in a report to the European Commission was the growing threat from the pace of global mergers in agriculture. The report cited Bayer and Monsanto on the supply side, and on the food side Heinz and Kraft, plus Amazon's takeover of the Whole Foods business.

The report said this is ultimately bad for farmers, who find themselves squeezed between ever more powerful suppliers of inputs, and ever more powerful processors and retailers. On that basis, it is perhaps easy to see where Macron is coming from with his ideas.