THIS IS the time of year for looking back, and over the crucial issue of support for agriculture after Brexit, we are no further ahead than this time last year. 

We still have no idea about what support measures will be in place – despite the government saying that after March 2019 we will no longer be part of the CAP or its rules; we have only vague promises about where we will be able to sell or the terms for those in the EU-27 and elsewhere to supply the UK market.

There are also big administrative unknowns. These range from approvals for pesticides and veterinary drugs to how food promotion will be funded to compete with the EU-27. Somewhere in government, someone must surely be thinking about what happens after Brexit.

Strip away the rhetoric and assurances from ministers, and there is no road map or plan for an industry vital to the economy and the lifeblood of rural communities across the UK. All we have is vague talk about a green Brexit. This might convince some that the government plans for a positive Brexit outcome – but farmers are too wise and cynical to fall for political spin from Westminster.

This is the time of the year for Christmas presents. Since we are on our way out of the EU, there however is little point in spending money on officials there. That reality is not apparent with UK officials, who still say they have to implement new rules because they are part of EU legislation. They need to get the message we are on our way out, and that by the time action for infringement could be taken we will be gone. 

If we wish we can go back to proper light bulbs, or stop being fined by Brussels for not recycling enough of our rubbish. This is what people expected when they voted to leave, but it is not going to happen.

Promises of a green Brexit underline that point.

That said, the farm commissioner, Phil Hogan, is still one of few politicians that deserves to be treated at Christmas. He has steered his way through some potential disasters and has been at the centre of the successful drive to open up new markets for European food. Sales have surged, and the UK has done well because of the Brexit-driven weakness of sterling. When we finally leave the EU is still not clear. We have the official date in 2019, but the two-year transition period could roll on. In reality, after 44 years of EU membership we can never be completely free of a key trading partner and ally against terrorism. Those that think otherwise and believe a hard Brexit is the answer need to question the economic logic of that position.

One sobering thought is that whenever we leave the EU single market and the customs union, the EU-27 – not the United States, South America, or Australasia – will be our biggest competitor for export markets for food. It is certainly true that we import more of everything, including food, from the EU than we send there. But a number of studies suggest they can live with loss of the UK food market better than we could live with loss of access to the EU-27. 

It may be tempting to think that without those EU suppliers, it would be Christmas every day for UK farmers and food companies supplying the major retailers. It would be a huge boost for farmers if that led to better prices, but the government will not let the Brexit outcome be higher prices on supermarket shelves. 

Any loss of EU-27 suppliers would be more than made up by cheap imports from around the world, granted preferential access by the government to buy trade deals. That would be much more damaging for agriculture than a sensible accommodation with the EU to maintain the status quo for trade on a single market basis. The penny, or euro cent, that needs to drop at Westminster is that Brexit has to be driven by economics rather than politics.

On a more positive Christmas note, despite the politics and the uncertainty that will continue into 2018, farmers across the UK will survive the changes Brexit will bring. Agriculture always has met change head-on, and people need to eat and rely on farmers to safeguard the environment.