Finished beef prices have again slipped on the week, with R4L steers down almost 20p per deadweight kg in Scotland against a high of 511.8p some six weeks previous.

Latest figures also show values are down in all sectors and in all areas on the week, with the average All steer and heifer prices in Scotland levelling at 488.9p (-3.3p) and 490.4p (-4.2p), while bull and cow values averaged 478.9p (-4.7p) and 399.0p (-2.3p).

This compares to those south of the Border, where steers and heifers cashed in at 474.8p (-3.2p) and 471.8p (-5.5p) respectively. Bull and cow prices were also down at 469.5p (-3.6p) and 370.0p (-7.1p). However, with most sectors throughout GB – with the exception of cull cows and heifer slaughterings in Scotland – witnessing reduced numbers, it begs the question why are values continuing to fall.

According to Iain Macdonald, market intelligence manager at Quality Meat Scotland, prices were almost 10% above last year at the end of June 2023 and showed a 24% lead over the five-year average.

He added that prime cattle values have been affected by supply chain challenges in Scotland and increased numbers forward in England and Wales for the past six, seven weeks.

Prime cattle numbers on farm across GB have also shown a year-on-year increase in the April 1 BCMS cattle population data. Although numbers in Scotland were down 2.5%, this was offset by a 2.3% uplift in England and Wales.

Competitive pressures may also have been influencing the market in recent weeks. In the Irish Republic, R3 steer prices have fallen 4.3% since the end of April, resulting in Scottish R4L steer prices opening a 14% lead at a time of year when Irish prices are often seasonally high. A rising sterling has added to the competitive pressures, with the Irish price fall a steeper 7% when quoted in pence per kg.

Mr Macdonald added: "The softening of the EU beef market has come despite supply remaining tight this year, suggesting a weakening of demand. In the first quarter of 2023, EU beef production fell by 3.7% year-on-year, with data from the 17 member states to report April figures to Eurostat pointing to an acceleration of this decline towards 5%.”

Furthermore, the rising sterling has reduced competitiveness against non-EU beef, while reports from the US point to some softening of demand in Asian markets which may have reduced import and export prices, particularly for price sensitive lower value cuts.

Looking forward to the second half of the year, prime cattle availability is expected to remain below 2022 levels in Scotland, though the pace of decline is set to soften towards 1-2% from above 4% in the first half. Meanwhile, south of the border, the pace of year-on-year increase is expected to soften to 1-2% in the second half, once the large increase at 24-30 months in April works its way out of the system, while a continuing increase at 18-24 months in April is partially offset by a reduction at 12-18 months.

Iain added: “Looking longer-term, availability for slaughter is likely to be slightly lower in 2024 across GB, based on reductions in April 2023 for cattle aged under 18 months."

Meanwhile, early signs from the 2023 spring calf crop point to a smaller reduction in supply in late 2024 and early 2025 than previously anticipated. While the number of beef-sired females over 30 months of age on Scottish farms was down by 3.6% year-on-year in April, beef-sired registrations in the first third of the year were marginally behind 2022 levels, while total registrations were down less than 1%. At GB level, registrations were down by 1.2% year-on-year in the January to April period.