July is traditionally viewed as a month with reduced prime cattle throughputs but there is evidence to suggest that the continued decline in the national herd is slowing down in Scotland – for now.
With fewer finished cattle on the market, prime cattle values in Scotland have seen a modest recovery in recent weeks, which according to QMS market intelligence manager, Iain Macdonald is due to the tightening of slaughter-ready cattle available throughout the whole of Great Britain.
“R4L steer prices in Scotland rose by 2p per dwkg for a second consecutive week, edging back above the £6 per kg mark and reaching a six-week high,” he said.
“Heifers, which continue to command a notable premium over steers since Easter, strengthened by 6p kg to 613.5p.
“Prices remain below the exceptional levels seen in 2025, but they are still 20% above the five-year average and 23% higher than two years ago, underlining the strength of the market compared with previous years.”
Looking ahead, Mr Macdonald said historic trends suggest prime cattle availability is likely to remain seasonally lower until late September or early October. However, cattle numbers on farm in Scotland are not expected to be below last year’s levels, so the extent of any further price movement will depend on how supply and demand balance over the coming weeks.
It is also hoped that warmer weather and promotional activity will help stimulate sales volumes, which have been coming under pressure due to the significant consumer price inflation which followed last year’s farm gate price surge.
According to Neil Wilson, executive director of the Institute of Auctioneers and Appraisers in Scotland, there are many reasons behind the reduced number of finished cattle available at this time.
“Generally at this time of the year, the sale of all cattle – finished, store and breeding edge off considerably. This is seasonally the quietest time of the year before we hit the madness of August and October,” explained Mr Wilson.
“We are seeing fewer and fewer stock coming through the ring which is ultimately down to the reduction in the national herd. However, it does feel like the tide could be shifting as I feel there have been fewer dispersal sales compared to recent years so hopefully that means folk are no longer choosing to come out of beef.”
Mr Wilson highlighted that government policy and streamlining the finishing process could provide the real solution to improving beef numbers.
“We are still a long way from where we should be when it comes to finished beef prices – one year of good prices is not going to sustain farmers in the long run. As auctioneers we try to do our very best to support producers to get those numbers up, and we will do what we can but government also needs to give us a hand,” he said.
“We have the beef calf scheme but there is still so much regulation with it that the intervals cut out many producers from the scheme. It’s the same with livestock markets and processors, everyone has overheads to pay and we all need to be able to make a living. If there was less red tape we could streamline the process and make it more economical for everyone.”
While the reduction in the national beef herd is nothing new, Mr Wilson said economics plays a huge part in why cattle numbers have been declining.
“Many people will come up with a myriad of reasons why the numbers are down citing succession and government support as big reasons. For me, it comes down to economics. If there is not enough money in the job succession becomes a problem, labour is difficult to find. If a farm is profitable, we see it thrive and it becomes a key part of the rural economy.”
In the Republic of Ireland, the Central Office of Statistics (CSO) has reported cattle kill numbers are down by an eighth on the year from approximately 777,000 head down to 684,000. As a major exporter of beef to the UK, this could also affect the GB trade.
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