European beef output is predicted to fall in the coming year as the continued shortage of beef cattle on the continent, affects supplies.
EU production dropped 4.1% last year according to a report from the Association of Independent Meat Suppliers (AIMS) which also highlighted a 4% fall on output from January-February this year due to reduced slaughterings albeit with higher carcase weights.
The decline in the cow herd is expected to see EU beef production fall 2.2% in 2026 and drop further in 2027.
Despite the fall in ex-farm beef values, AIMS’ says prices will continue to retail at higher levels due to the continued supply constraints which is expected to lead to 12% decline in beef meat supplies and an 18% fall in live exports.
EU beef meat exports to the UK are also expected to drop as Australian supplies increase to the UK. After a strong decline in live cattle exports in 2025 (-37%), a further drop is expected due to the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affecting the imports of EU beef.
The report suggest that improved trade between the EU and South America could provide the stop gap to fulfil demand.
“Imports into the EU are expected to rise by 12%, driven by inflows from South America following the agreement between the Mercosur trade block (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) and the European Union coming into full force,” the report states.
AIMS added: “If the EU suspends Brazilian imports from September due to non-compliance with antimicrobial rules in animal production, beef and poultry imports may decline.”
Analysis from Agrifood price reporting agency, Expana also highlighted, 'the looming EU suspension of Brazilian meat imports linked to antimicrobial standards has continued to weigh on sentiment around this key export corridor'.
Brazilian officials are working to reverse the decision before the deadline.
Unrest in the Middle East has reignited concerns around market uncertainty, too.
“EU beef prices declined both month on month and year over year, weighed down by a weak domestic demand,” Expana stated.
“The European commission forecasts EU per capita beef consumption will contract by 2% in 2026, driven by intensifying inflationary pressures across the region. Market participants have flagged weather conditions in the EU and feed costs as key variables to monitor going forward.”
The AIMS report concludes saying that the incoming ban on Brazilian beef could cause a surge in imports to the EU in the months before September. The report also suggests that Brazil will look to increase exports into the UK in effort to combat the export volume lost.
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