EU red meat sector faces year of shrinking production

Analysis of the EU mid-year forecast by AHDB suggests the biggest changes will be seen in sheep meat production, while the long-term decline in the EU beef herd continues to reduce output across the bloc.

Beef output falls as herd decline continues.

EU beef and veal production is forecast to fall by 2% in 2026, taking total output down to 6.25 million tonnes.The European Commission said the reduction is slightly larger than earlier forecasts owing to the continued structural decline in cattle numbers across the bloc.

Consumer demand also continues to soften. Per-capita beef consumption is expected to fall by a further 1%, extending a long-term trend that has seen consumption drop from 12kg per person in 2006 to 9.7kg in 2026.

While production falls, imports are heading in the opposite direction.

Beef imports are forecast to rise 12% to 469,000 tonnes, building on strong growth already seen this year. Between January and May, imports into the EU were up 22%, with Brazil accounting for 30% of supplies and the UK providing 26%.

However, trade flows could shift later in the year. The EU is planning to introduce restrictions on Brazilian beef imports from September over antimicrobial concerns.

For UK exporters, that could create opportunities to fill any supply gap left by Brazilian product, although there are also concerns that some Brazilian beef could be redirected onto the UK market.

Exports from the EU are forecast to fall 12% to 440,000 tonnes as tighter domestic supplies leave less product available for overseas buyers.

Overall, beef supplies available to the European market are expected to decline by around 3% year on year, underlining just how tight the sector has become.

Sheep sector sees sharpest decline.

The most significant change in the Commission's outlook comes in the sheep sector. EU sheep meat production is forecast to drop 4% in 2026 to 478,800 tonnes, reflecting a flock that has been in long-term decline.

AHDB notes that production is now only a little over half the level seen in 2000, with disease pressures, weather challenges and structural changes within the industry all contributing to lower output.

Consumption is also expected to ease, falling 2% to 1.2kg per person. Despite lower demand, imports are forecast to rise strongly.

Lamb imports into the EU are expected to increase 7% to 189,400 tonnes, while exports are forecast to fall 3% to 35,800 tonnes.

The combination of lower production and changing trade patterns means overall sheep meat availability across the bloc is expected to fall by 5%, leaving total supplies at just 522,000 tonnes.

For Scottish producers, the continued contraction of the EU sheep flock will be watched closely as it points to tighter continental supplies in the longer term, even as imported product plays a greater role in meeting demand.

Pork market remains steady.

In contrast to beef and lamb, the pork sector is expected to remain broadly stable.

Net pig meat production is forecast to increase by just 0.3%, reaching 22.1 million tonnes. The modest growth follows two consecutive years of expansion and reflects a 0.6% increase in the EU sow herd.

Consumption is also forecast to remain unchanged at 33.1kg per person, making pork the most stable of the three major livestock sectors.

Trade, however, remains under pressure. Imports are forecast to fall 3%, while exports are expected to decline 0.5% to 2.97 million tonnes.

AHDB said several factors are weighing on export demand, including outbreaks of African Swine Fever (ASF), particularly in Spain, China's anti-dumping measures and increasing competition from Brazilian pork in key Asian markets.

ASF outbreaks have also disrupted trade flows within Europe, with product originally destined for export markets being redirected back into the EU, adding to domestic supplies and putting pressure on pig prices.

Despite those challenges, total pork availability across the bloc is forecast to edge up by around 0.3%, leaving the EU pork market considerably more balanced than either beef or lamb. Outlook points to tighter red meat supplies.

Taken together, the forecasts highlight an increasingly divided European livestock sector.

While pork production appears to have stabilised, both beef and lamb continue to face the effects of shrinking breeding herds and flocks.

For Scottish farmers, the continued reduction in EU beef and sheep production could provide long-term support for red meat markets, particularly if demand remains resilient and import growth fails to fully offset falling domestic output.

However, changing trade patterns, including the EU's planned restrictions on Brazilian beef, will remain a key factor to watch over the months ahead.